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Read Article Rockets vs. Warriors prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for 26 points in Sunday's NBA game [4/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors predictions for NBA Sunday.
NBA action continues on Sunday at 10:00 PM ET as the Houston Rockets square off with the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Rockets vs. Warriors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Warriors lineup will feature stars like Stephen Curry, Kristaps Porzingis and De'Anthony Melton, while the Rockets will look to Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Rockets vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Rockets and Warriors, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Rockets a 65% chance of defeating the Warriors. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 115-111.
According to our model, the Rockets (-3.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 227.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Rockets vs. Warriors odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rockets | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | -168 | +150 |
| Total | o227.5 (-112) | u227.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rockets vs. Warriors picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors +3.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -168 |
| Total | Under 227.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Rockets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rockets vs. Warriors player props
Betting on Rockets vs. Warriors NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
Kevin Durant is expected to lead the Rockets with 26 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Stephen Curry is projected to have 24 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists for the Warriors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Rockets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Rockets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 26 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 47 |
| Amen Thompson | 19 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 43 |
| Alperen Sengun | 18 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 45 |
| Reed Sheppard | 15 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 32 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
Warriors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Warriors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 24 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 41 |
| K. Porzingis | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 34 |
| D. Melton | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Gui Santos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| B. Podziemski | 12 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
Rockets vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Warriors and Rockets at Chase Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Sunday, April 5, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors on Sunday, with Kevin Durant projected for a game-high 47 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rockets vs. Warriors insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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