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Read Article Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Tuesday, July 25
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit.
However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR Parlays.
RELATED: Tuesday's +2525 Home Run Parlay
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Home Run Cheat Sheet
For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:
- Today’s Starting Pitchers who have allowed the most HR
- Hot hitters – most HR over last X games
- The five worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
- Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR history
Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our Best Home Run Props, continuously updating throughout the day!
🎯 Dinger Targets
Today’s starting pitchers who have given up the most home runs this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.
| PITCHER | OPPONENT | HR ALLOWED | IP | HR/9 |
| A. Gomber (COL) | WSH Nationals | 22 | 102 | 1.9 |
| T. Williams (WSH) | COL Rockies | 20 | 98.2 | 1.8 |
| M. Kopech (CHW) | CHI Cubs | 19 | 92.1 | 1.9 |
| Z. Greinke (KC) | CLE Guardians | 18 | 96.2 | 1.7 |
| C. Bassitt (TOR) | LA Dodgers | 18 | 121.2 | 1.3 |
| D. German (NYY) | NY Mets | 17 | 97.2 | 1.6 |
| K. Waldichuk (OAK) | SF Giants | 16 | 80 | 1.8 |
| J. Urias (LAD) | TOR Blue Jays | 15 | 75.1 | 1.8 |
| G. Canning (LAA) | DET Tigers | 15 | 79.2 | 1.7 |
| P. Lopez (MIN) | SEA Mariners | 15 | 121.1 | 1.1 |
| C. Burnes (MIL) | CIN Reds | 14 | 121.1 | 1.0 |
| T. Walker (PHI) | BA Orioles | 13 | 107.1 | 1.1 |
| R. Hill (PIT) | SD Padres | 13 | 109.2 | 1.1 |
| G. Kirby (SEA) | MIN Twins | 13 | 119.2 | 1.0 |
| B. Snell (SD) | PIT Pirates | 11 | 108 | 0.9 |
| J. France (HOU) | TEX Rangers | 10 | 77.2 | 1.2 |
| E. Cabrera (MIA) | TB Rays | 10 | 72 | 1.3 |
| S. Matz (STL) | ARI D-Backs | 10 | 81 | 1.1 |
| M. Kelly (ARI) | STL Cardinals | 10 | 95 | 0.9 |
| J. Verlander (NYM) | NY Yankees | 9 | 83 | 1.0 |
| A. Abbott (CIN) | MIL Brewers | 8 | 55.2 | 1.3 |
| T. Glasnow (TB) | MIA Marlins | 8 | 54.2 | 1.3 |
| K. Hendricks (CHC) | CHI White Sox | 8 | 64 | 1.1 |
MORE: MLB Game-By-Game Predictions
🔥 Hot Hitters
These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.
| Batter | Timeframe (last # of days) | HR |
| S. Ohtani (LAA) |
Last 30 | 11 |
| M. Machado (SD) |
Last 30 | 10 |
| L. Robert (CHW) |
Last 30 | 9 |
| M. Betts (LAD) |
Last 30 | 9 |
| J. Martinez (LAD) | Last 30 | 8 |
| M. Olson (ATL) | Last 30 | 8 |
| C. Bellinger (CHC) |
Last 15 | 5 |
| T. Casas (BOS) |
Last 15 | 5 |
| C. McCormick (HOU) | Last 15 | 5 |
| A. Riley (ATL) |
Last 7 | 6 |
| W. Flores (SF) | Last 7 | 4 |
| M. Muncy (LAD) | Last 7 | 4 |
| C. Cron (COL) | Last 7 | 4 |
💥 Down Bad Bullpens
Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!
| TEAM | RANK | HR ALLOWED |
| WSH Nationals | T-1st | 56 |
| OAK Athletics | T-1st | 56 |
| NY Mets | T-2nd | 49 |
| DET Tigers | T-2nd | 49 |
| TB Rays | 3rd | 48 |
| CHI White Sox | T-4th | 47 |
| TOR Blue Jays | T-4th | 47 |
| MIA Marlins | 5th | 46 |
MORE: Today's Hottest MLB Trends
🤝 Hello, Old Friend
These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Minimum 10 PAs and .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.
| Batter | Opposing Pitcher | Plate Appearances | HR | AVG |
| E. Longoria (ARI) | S Matz (STL) | 5 | 2 | .400 |
| G. Stanton (NYY) | J. Verlander (NYM) | 21 | 2 | .150 |
| E. Jimenez (CHW) | K. Hendricks (CHC) | 11 | 2 | .273 |
| T. d'Arnaud (ATL) | J. Paxton (BOS) | 8 | 2 | .429 |
| L. Robert Jr. (CHW) | K. Hendricks (CHC) | 8 | 2 | .500 |
| M. Machado (SD) | R. Hill (PIT) | 13 | 2 | .417 |
| J. Turner (BOS) | C. Morton (ATL) | 29 | 2 | .292 |
| B. Belt (TOR) | J. Urias (LAD) | 30 | 2 | .318 |
| K. Bryant (COL) | T. Williams (WSH) | 27 | 2 | .350 |
| D. LeMahieu | J. Verlander (NYM) | 26 | 2 | .320 |
| N. Castellanos (PHI) | K. Gibson (BAL) | 46 | 2 | .233 |
| K. Marte (ARI) | S. Matz (STL) | 12 | 1 | .250 |
| S. Perez (KC) | Aaron Civale (CLE) | 14 | 1 | .273 |
| A. Duvall (BOS) | C. Morton (ATL) | 13 | 1 | .273 |
| E. Olivares (KC) | A, Civale (CLE) | 11 | 1 | .273 |
| D. Peralta (LAD) | C. Bassitt (LAD) | 12 | 1 | .300 |
| N. Arenado (STL) | M. Kelly (ARI) | 15 | 1 | .308 |
| A. Hicks (BAL) | T. Walker (PHI) | 16 | 1 | .333 |
| W. Contreras (MIL) | A. Abbott (CIN) | 9 | 1 | .500 |
| W. Contreras (STL) | M. Kelly (ARI) | 9 | 1 | .571 |
| M. Canha (NYM) | D. German (NYY) | 14 | 1 | .539 |
Enjoy gambling responsibly. Treat it as entertainment, not a way to make money and only gamble with funds you can afford to lose. Know when to stop and seek support if needed. Remember, gambling should be a fun and enjoyable experience. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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