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Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Monday, September 4

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Written by Dave Garofolo
Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Monday, September 4

Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit.

However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR Parlays.

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Home Run Cheat Sheet

For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:

  • Today’s Starting Pitchers and their HR allowed data
  • Hot hitters – most HR over last # of days
  • The worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
  • Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR and batting history

Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our Best Home Run Props which continuously update throughout the day!

MORE: Best Bets Today in All Sports - Monday, September 4

🎯 Dinger Targets

Today’s starting pitchers with their total home runs and home runs per 9 allowed this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.

PITCHER OPPONENT HR ALLOWED IP HR/9
P. Lambert (COL) ARI D-Backs 15 76.1 1.77
L. Giolito (CLE) MIN Twins 30 153.2 1.76
K. Waldichuk (OAK) TOR Blue Jays 21 114.0 1.66
A. Heaney (TEX) HOU Astros 22 127.2 1.56
G. Rodriguez (BAL) LA Angels 15 93.0 1.45
R. Hill (SD) PHI Phillies 21 137.0 1.38
B. Bello (BOS) TB Rays 19 131.0 1.31
J. Scholtens (CWS) KC Royals 10 70.1 1.28
K. Rosenberg (LAA) *AAA stats* BAL Orioles 14 100.0 1.26
J. Berrios (TOR) OAK Athletics 21 158.0 1.20
J. France (HOU) TEX Rangers 15 116.0 1.16
P. Lopez (MIN) CLE Guardians 21 164.2 1.15
B. Woo (SEA) CIN Reds 8 65.0 1.11
M. Kelly (ARI) COL Rockies 17 141.1 1.08
T. Walker (PHI) SD Padres 17 142.1 1.08
C. Burnes (MIL) PIT Pirates 19 165.0 1.04
L. Webb (SF) CHI Cubs 19 180.1 0.95
J. Steele (CHC) SF Giants 11 144.0 0.69
C. Ragans (KC) CHI White Sox 5 66.0 0.68
A. Civale (TB) BOS Red Sox 7 102.1 0.62
CIN - TBD SEA Mariners  -  - -
PIT - TBD MIL Brewers  - -

MORE: MLB Game-By-Game Predictions

🔥 Hot Hitters 

These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.

BATTER TIMEFRAME (LAST # OF DAYS) HR
K. Schwarber (PHI) Last 30 12
T. Turner (PHI)
*6 in last 7*
Last 30 11
A. Judge (NYY) Last 30 11
S. Torkelson (DET) Last 30 10
B. Harper (PHI) Last 30 10
P. Alonso (NYM) Last 30 10
K. Carpenter (DET) Last 30 9
M. Betts (LAD) Last 30 9
C. Seager (TEX) Last 30 9
J. Soler (MIA) Last 30 9
M. Ozuna (ATL) Last 15 8
A. Duvall (BOS) Last 15 8
D. Stewart (NYM) Last 7 4
G. Torres (NYY) Last 7 4
R. Acuna Jr. (ATL) Last 7 4

💥 Down Bad Bullpens

Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!

TEAM RANK HR ALLOWED
WSH Nationals 1st 81
OAK Athletics 2nd 71
DET Tigers T-3rd 69
CHI White Sox T-3rd 69
LA Angels T-3rd 69
KC Royals T-3rd 69
BOS Red Sox T-4th 68
NY Mets T-4th 68
TEX Rangers T-5th 67
ARI D-Backs T-5th 67

MORE: Today's Hottest MLB Trends

🤝 Hello, Old Friend

These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Players with just one home run will typically require a minimum of 10 PAs and a .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.

BATTER OPP. PITCHER PLATE APPEARANCES HR AVG
J. Abreu (HOU) A. Heaney (TEX) 23 4 .294
M. Kepler (MIN) L. Giolito (CLE) 46 3 .293
E. Montero (COL) M. Kelly (ARI) 5 2 .600
C. Correa (MIN) L. Giolito (CLE) 27 2 .208
R. McMahon (COL) M. Kelly (ARI) 33 2 .200
J. Altuve (HOU) A. Heaney (TEX) 35 2 .324
M. Dubon (HOU A. Heaney (TEX) 10 1 .400
S. Brown (OAK) J. Berrios (TOR) 12 1 .417
R. Odor (SD) T. Walker (PHI) 15 1 .500
T. Turner (PHI) R. Hill (SD) 17 1 .471
A. Bregman (HOU) A. Heaney (TEX) 34 1 .273

*Designates potential starters not yet confirmed

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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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