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Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction: Golden State favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [3/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks predictions for NBA Monday.
The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors are scheduled to meet in NBA action at American Airlines Center on Monday, with tipoff at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Warriors as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Mavericks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington, while the Warriors will be led by Kristaps Porzingis, De'Anthony Melton and Brandin Podziemski.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Warriors vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA matchup between the Warriors and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Warriors a 59% chance of beating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Warriors winning 116-114.
According to our model, the Warriors (-2) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 231.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Warriors vs. Mavericks odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Warriors | Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2 (-105) | +2 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -124 | +106 |
| Total | o231.5 (-110) | u231.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Warriors vs. Mavericks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors -2 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | -124 |
| Total | Under 231.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Warriors to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Warriors vs. Mavericks player props
Looking for Golden State vs. Dallas NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.
Kristaps Porzingis is expected to lead the Warriors with 17 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists, while Cooper Flagg is projected to have 21 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists for the Mavericks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Warriors prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Warriors are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Porzingis | 17 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| D. Melton | 15 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| B. Podziemski | 14 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 34 |
| Gui Santos | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Gary Payton | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
Mavericks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 21 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 44 |
| Naji Marshall | 16 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 33 |
| P.J. Washington | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Max Christie | 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| Klay Thompson | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
Warriors vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details
Monday's matchup between the Mavericks and Warriors at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Monday, March 23, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Warriors, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Monday, with Cooper Flagg projected for a game-high 44 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Warriors vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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