Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – English Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A BetsAug 26, 2021 at 12:52AM
The best free soccer handicapper in the game is back for another week, with the great Prospector Sam providing free picks for the action across Europe.
Well fuck, where do I even begin? As this character grows like a weed on steroids (would that just be fertilizer? Actually, who cares, I’m not a plant person), I find myself running into new topics that I want to write about every few hours, each with its own funny angle. Unfortunately, neither you nor I have time for that much of my nonsense (I genuinely have to tune myself out to get work done some days), so I’ll try to stick to a couple major points for my intro.
First, let’s start with the serious. Last week was not my best gambling performance, and that sucked. The more people I get reading these articles, the more I care about being right and I hate that I didn’t win money. Now, to be fair, it also wasn’t catastrophic. I lost 2.37 units, which falls in the range of “not fun but it’s gambling and you can’t win every week.” I lost, but lost small enough that these articles are still comfortably up 2.96 units since the start of the season. So, it wasn’t great, but me and the Gold Diggers (my loving name for all of you) live to fight another day!
Second, let’s take a minute to discuss West Brom. This character is primarily about sports gambling, but it’s also meant to be fun. And that part of Prospector Sam is probably more important to me than the gambling side (there are a million sharps on twitter, the real “value” of Prospector Sam is all the other stuff that goes along with the picks). And nothing embodies that idea better than a bunch of gamblers losing their bananas hammering the over on a completely unimportant Championship team that most of us can’t even watch on TV. Not only is it hilarious to see people tweeting about goals and sending winning slips, but it’s also impressive that we’ve united around this pick because it genuinely is a great bet. I’ve given it out 4 times, all at positive odds, and it’s hit every fucking time. Winning money is fun by itself, but this West Brom Over movement is truly a blessing, both because we’re all getting rich and because it’s such a ridiculous cause to rally behind. Good for us.
And with that, I’ll move back to what I do best: picks. I’m making an effort to put less fluff in here and more of it on twitter because I know reading these articles takes time and don’t want to drag things out too long. So let’s just get right to the meat and potatoes and make some money together. I feel a nice bounce back week coming!
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Free Soccer Picks
🏴 Best Premier League Picks
Brighton vs. Everton: Sat Aug 28, 10am (EST)
Let’s keep this one short and sweet. These two teams have scored a combined NINE goals in the first two weeks of the season. For those of you who struggled with arithmetic, that comes out to exactly 4.5 goals per week (you’re welcome). What about goals conceded, you ask? Well, that picture isn’t quite as pretty, but they aren’t exactly Troy when it comes to defensive strength either (4 goals conceded total through 2 weeks). Both clubs are scoring at a solid clip, and are playing a more aggressive style that leads to opportunities and goals. So at +126 for Over 2.5, we’re getting a Costco sized bargain on this line and I think the value is great for the money. Look for both sides to try to build on their early season success and for 3-4 shots to find the back of the net.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+126, 1.5 units)
Norwich vs. Leicester: Sat Aug 28, 10am (EST)
Norwich are probably plotting to find whoever created the random fixture schedule so they can kidnap and slowly torture them. The Canaries have been welcomed back to the Premier League with an absolutely miserable two weeks, losing 5-0 to City then 3-0 to Liverpool. And their next gift? A date with a top 5 Leicester side looking to bounce back off a tough loss. You can see where this is going, so I won’t bury the lede, but Leicester are a great bet here.
The odds are a bit skewed by their loss to West Ham on Monday, which wasn’t a great showing, but that result was largely decided by an inexplicably dumb challenege by Ayoze Perez that saw red in the first half which basically ended the game. The Foxes are a solid side (at least until the last few weeks of the season) and Norwich have shown, if nothing else, that they clearly aren’t ready to compete with any of the top clubs in the Prem. So, at -115 for Leicester to win, I think this is a steal. Leicester have shown in recent years that they’re here to stay as one of the big boys in the EPL, and I expect they comfortably handle a Norwich side who are struggling just to make it to the end of 90 minutes without embarrassing themselves
💰 Pick: Leicester ML (-115, 2 units)
Aston Villa vs. Brentford: Sat Aug 28, 10am (EST)
I may have overstepped a bit when I said that Brentford were capable of carrying over their offensive success from the Championship. After watching their match with Crystal Palace, I was honestly unsure if this team was even capable of scoring a goal, despite having seen them put two past Arsenal the week before. Basically, expect the Bees to be fighting the relegation battle for most of the season, and plan/bet accordingly.
Villa may or may not qualify as a top quality team, but, aside from the first half at Watford, they’ve shown so far that they’re capable of holding onto a mid-table slot despite losing Graelish. I expect they gobble up points at Villa Park all year, where they’re traditionally strong, and that their woes will come on the road or against the top 6 sides. In a matchup with newly promoted Brentford, who are coming down from their emotional high, I think Villa handle this game at home comfortably. At standard odds, the money is right for the price too.
💰 Pick: Aston Villa ML (-105, 1 unit)
Liverpool vs. Chelsea: Sun Aug 28, 12:30pm (EST)
As the marquee matchup of the week, I’d love to see an exciting battle here (well, actually, I would love to see both of these teams swallowed up by a sinkhole to never be seen again, but I’ll stick to realistic options). Unfortunately, nothing about this match leads me to believe it will be. To start, Liverpool and Chelsea have given up a combined 0 goals this year, which doesn’t bode well for goal scoring (Sam coming in hot with the deep analysis there).
Sure, neither team has faced a spectacular offense yet, but both have shown they can hold their line for 90 minutes and it seems unlikely this turns into a shootout. On top of that, these high profile games just have a tendency to be cagey and low scoring. Neither Chelsea nor Liverpool will want to concede early and leave themselves a massive hill to climb, and I expect this game moves slowly and cautiously for about 60 minutes. Sure, both of these sides have players capable of producing brilliance that could break that deadlock, but there will just be less chances to do so. It may not be the most exciting bet, but Under 2.5 is where the smart money sits here and I’ll take it at close to standard odds.
💰 Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-122, 1 unit)
🏴 Best English Championship Picks
West Brom vs. Peterborough: Sat Aug 28, 3pm (EST)
I just don’t get it. They finally dropped it down to close to even, but they’re still not even in the right Zip Code for a team whose games average 4 goals per contest. I’m out of superlatives to give for this bet, let’s just keep getting rich together.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+102, 1.5 units)
🇪🇸 Best La Liga Picks
Real Betis vs. Real Madrid: Sat Aug 28, 4pm (EST)
If you look back at last week’s article, I believe you’ll find the words “offensive talent” and “liable to make mistakes” somewhere in my analysis of the Real over (I actually don’t know exactly what I said, I’m too lazy to go look). But, after a 3-3 draw to Levante that easily covered the 2.5 number, I’m feeling pretty good about that assessment and there’s no real reason to change.
Naturally, I figured the over would be massively skewed after their performance though, so I expected the value would be gone. NOPE. The over 2.5 actually has better value than it did last week, which just doesn’t make any fucking sense for this Real squad right now. Could Betis’ offensive struggles to start the season cause problems here? Sure. But, overall, Madrid will dictate the tempo and style of the game as the superior side and I think we continue to see goals in their games. Take these odds and run like a fat kid chasing an ice cream truck.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-140, 2 units)
🇫🇷 Best French Ligue 1 Picks
ESTAC Troyes vs. Monaco: Sun Aug 29, 7:00am (EST)
Monaco can’t possibly be this fucking bad (I tell myself as I watch them implode week after week). Seriously, though, they just can’t be. This is a club playing in the Champions League with enough talent to comfortably finish in European spots. They will move up the table based on talent alone, and it’s more a matter of when than if. Well, I think that progress starts now, and the value is awesome if we hit the timing right.
ESTAC Troyes are a newly promoted side with just 1 point through 3 games, and they’re a pretty strong candidate for relegation. Facing a relative French powerhouse (or whatever Monaco counts as, I have no fucking clue with their weird principality situation), Troyes are a good bet to just get completely outclassed. So, at -125, the money here is fantastic if Monaco gets their fucking head on straight and plays something more than “terrible.” Their form hasn’t shown up yet, but I’m willing to take a risk based purely on the gap in quality.
💰 Pick: Monaco ML (-125, 1 unit)
🇮🇹 Best Serie A Picks
Udinese vs. Venezia: Fri Aug 27, 12:30pm EST
I’m not sure how I ended up picking an Udinese match two weeks in a row, but here we are. This bet actually has way more to do with Venezia anyway, so let’s focus on them first. Venezia went up a man to Napoli in their first match in Serie A since getting promoted, setting them up for the storybook win they could only have dreamed of. Unfortunately, they still managed to fall flat on their face and lost 2-0 despite the man advantage. No bueno (yes, I know that’s Spanish, but I don’t know a lick of Italian. I’m a prospector, not a world traveler).
Udinese, meanwhile, came back from 2 goals down to Juventus and pulled off a draw against the Italian giants, showcasing that they’re still a decent side in this league. You see where we’re going, but I expect an 11 man Udinese, at home, to comfortably handle this Venezia side that appear outclassed in this league (on first impression), and I love the value we’re getting as well. Take the ML on the home side.
💰 Picks: Udinese ML (-150, 1.5 units)
🇩🇪 Best Bundesliga Picks
Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim: Fri Aug 27, 2:30pm EST
Three games into the season (including the German Super Cup), and nothing seems to have changed about Dortmund. They want to beat you by scoring goals, and are willing to live and die by that strategy. Sometimes it works (like their 5-2 win over Frankfurt), but sometimes they have to deal with days like last Saturday where they simply can’t find the final touch or shot. Well, what time to better capitalize on value then coming off a poor performance.
After losing 2-1 for Freiburg despite 70% possession and 11 more shots, the Dortmunders have some fairly generous goal scoring odds (at least, for the makeup of the team) against a Hoffenheim side who have been overperforming to start the year. I expect Dortmund to bounce back strongly from a disappointing result and to go apeshit all over Hoffenheim’s ass (I swear I wanted a more sophisticated phrase, but nothing else did the point justice). And, at positive odds for over 2.5 goals, I think the money is also solid for the type of game I expect. Haaland and the rest of the Dortmund squad should perform better this week, and I’m willing to take a shot at a high scoring performance by them against a team they should outclass.
💰 Picks: Over 2.5 goals (+108, 1.5 units)
Wolfsburg vs. Leipzig: Sun Aug 29, 11:30am EST
The biggest match in the Bundesliga this week pits two teams who qualified for the Champions League last season against each other, and I honestly have no clue who comes out alive. Having watched both of these teams play this year, the only thing I can really say is that I have no fucking idea what to expect from either of them. Leipzig dropped points in their opening matchup to a Mainz team who had half the club going through Covid protocol, while Wolfsburg have had two close calls against some weaker opponents.
So I’m walking away from the money line, because nothing feels good to me. But the over? Yeah, that’s something I can get behind. Leipzig play a fairly aggressive style that, at its best, produces goals in bunches. They don’t score like Bayern or Dortmund, but they’re the next best thing in Germany. Wolfsburg are no slouches themselves, and actually outscored Leipzig last year by a goal for the campaign (61 to 60 in 34 games). These two sides will go at each other hard like a couple of Germans at Oktoberfest arguing about who can drink more Paulener, which is exactly what we saw last time they faced off (2-2 draw). Expect some goals in this one, and ride it at a decent number.
💰 Picks: Over 2.5 goals (-118, 1 unit)
⚽ Euro Soccer Leagues
Gent vs. Brugge: Sun Aug 29, 7:30am EST
Time to take a bit of a flier. Gent have sucked so far this season, and there’s no way around it. They’re 15th through 5 weeks in the Jupiler League sitting near clubs like St. Truiden and Waragem, which is never good company to be in. That said, they’re a way better side than that and qualified for Europe last year, meaning the gap between them and Brugge isn’t nearly as big as the table suggests.
On top of that, Brugge haven’t looked all that impressive either. They’ve won games they’re expected to win, but picked up a couple of ugly draws and dont look like the same side that dominated the league last year. So, at almost a 2:1 payout for the home side to win this match, I’m willing to take a risk and see if they can step up their performance for an important league tie. Is it a game I’m going crazy on? No, but the value is solid and it’s worth taking a chance for a high payout with the number we’re getting here. Just don’t get too aggressive, I know you people love to get a little overexcited when you see positive odds.
💰 Pick: Gent ML (+195, 0.75 units)
Vejle vs. Copenhagen: Sun Aug 29, 10:00am (EST)
This bet isn’t going to make you rich, but not every bet will. Basically, you could stick an 18-wheeler inside the gap of talent between these two clubs, and getting odds better than -200 on the money line is borderline robbery. Copenhagen have 14 points through 6 games and sit 2nd in the Superliga table (including 4 straight wins) while Vejle are in dead last with 1 point. Sure, the home side won’t continue to be this bad all year, but this just isn’t the type of tie they’ll be picking up points in unless they get extremely lucky. Don’t think too much, and use this one as a solid bankroll builder.
💰 Pick: Copenhagen ML (-190, 2 units)
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