FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks: Top five home run hitters in the Dimers App today, April 7

Home run bettors rejoice! FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promo is back for the 2026 MLB season, and this year's version gives you the option to choose between a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token, both eligible on any "To Hit a Home Run" wager for today's MLB games.

If you're new to the promotion or just need a refresher on the updated rules, we've got everything you need below, including today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model as seen in the Dimers App.

Speaking of the Dimers App, you can get every player's home run prediction every single day, making it the ultimate tool for home run betting in 2026. Sign up in the app today and get a three-day free trial of Dimers Pro!

What Is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel Sportsbook's long-running weekly MLB promotion, dropping every Tuesday during the baseball season. This year, FanDuel has changed the format with a Choose Your Own Reward option, giving bettors the two bonuses to pick from.

Here's how it works:

1. Find the Choose Your Own Reward carousel card on the FanDuel homepage and click "Choose Reward."
2. Select one of two options: a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token.
3. Click "Claim Reward" — it'll be loaded directly into your FanDuel account.
4. Apply it to any eligible "To Hit a Home Run" straight bet or parlay for today's MLB games.

Today's top home run probabilities – April 7, 2026

Our model has crunched the numbers across today's full MLB slate. Below is a ranking of the best home run probabilities on the board and a breakdown of each matchup, with our model today isolating two specific pitching matchups for the most home run upside.

1. Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Game: Athletics vs. Yankees

Dimers Probability: 25.3%

FanDuel Odds: +230

Leading the way is the Yankees' Aaron Judge, at surprisingly decent odds for his usual price, and not terrible far off from his fair odds of +300 according to the Dimers model.

Judge is a premier HR hitter, the yearly favorite to lead the league, with 3 to his name so far this season.

There are few pitches he doesn't hit well and opposing starter Aaron Civale's top pitch mix of cutter, sinker, curve doesn't contain one of them.

Civale ranked in the bottom 25th percentile in MLB for barrel % last season and Judge is 5-17 with a 1 HR in his career vs. Civale.

2. Yordan Alvarez (Astros)

Game: Astros vs. Rockies

Dimers Probability: 23.4%

FanDuel Odds: +310

In the other matchup our model loves today, Yordan Alvarez leads the way in Astros-Rockies.

Alvarez and Co. get the Rockies in Coors Field, one of the more favorable parks for home runs and early weather reports look like some wind could be blowing out with moderate temps.

Alvarez is mashing the ball to start the season, hitting .353, slugging .794 and racking up four home runs, one shy of the early-season lead.

He's particularly crushing lefties, with a .529 average and 3 HR in 17 AB, compared to .176, 1 HR and a .412 SLG in the same number of AB vs. righties.

Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is a lefty who utilizes a three-pitch mix vs. opposing lefthanded batters, with Alvarez hitting two, the sweeper and sinker, very well early on.

Fair at just +325, Yordan is almost right in line with our model against his price on the books.

Today's top Home Run predictions in the Dimers App.

3. Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)

Game: Athletics vs. Yankees

Dimers Probability: 23.2%

FanDuel Odds: +300

We go back to the Yankees-A's matchup on the other power-hitting righty in the Yanks lineup (and last player to clear 20% HR probability today), Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton is also hitting very well to start the year, though he's not crushing the ball quite yet. He's making good contact though, and is a few feet shy of 2 HR on the year.

He's got 2+ hits in 6 of 8 games this year so it's a matter of time before he starts sending them over the fence with regularity.

Stanton is hitless vs. lefties so far but Civale sets up a righty-righty matchup and he likes to use the Sinker, one of Stanton's best pitches over the past five seasons.

4. Christian Walker (Astros)

Game: Astros vs. Rockies

Dimers Probability: 19.7%

FanDuel Odds: +350

Snip snap!

We're back in Coors Field for HR No. 4 on the day, which is Christian Walker, in his second season with Houston.

Walker took a little while to get going last year, but not so much this season. He's hitting .333 with a .619 SLG and 2 HR, both in his past three games.

He's crushing the ball, ranking in the 80th percentile or better in every relevant category on Statcast with his bat and now gets a park he's very familiar with from his time in Arizona.

Walker is better vs. righties historically, but hit Freeland's mix of breaking pitches well and has hit between 4-10 HR vs. lefties in his past four seasons.

5. Ben Rice (Yankees)

Game: Athletics vs. Yankees

Dimers Probability: 19.6%

FanDuel Odds: +340

One more time in the Bronx, with the Yankees' Ben Rice off to a great start in his third season. Rice has 3 HR already as he looks to crack the 30 HR plateau after hitting 26 last year.

Rice is in the 98th percentile or better in SLG, Avg Exit Velo, Barrel % and Hard Hit %, all metrics which line up with home runs.

He can hit both arms, but all 3 of his HR and a .857 SLG have come vs. right handers like Civale and has great numbers vs. his cutter/sinker/curve mix vs. righties dating back to last season.

His 3 HR would be 4 if he hit every ball in Yankee Stadium and as many as 6 in other parks. Rice is setting himself up for a great year with good data in his favor tonight.

Three ways to bet on Dinger Tuesday

1. High Probability approach

Back the players at the top of the probability list. You'll often be betting on the game's premier power hitters at shorter odds, but you're maximizing your chance of cashing. Pair this approach with the Profit Boost Token to squeeze some extra payout out of a high-confidence pick.

2. Maximum Value approach

Look for players where our model's probability significantly outpaces the implied probability in their FanDuel odds. Sometimes those will be top probability players, other times you'll have to check out our best MLB props if they're further down the board. These edges are where the real value always lies. Similarly, you can use the Profit Boost Token to turn a player who isn't a value play into a value play.

3. The Longshot Parlay

Stack two or more of today's value plays into a parlay for a significantly higher payout. Use the Bet Reset token to return your original wager in the form of bonus bets in case the wager loses. Just keep your unit size smaller than you'd use on a straight wager as parlays carry substantially higher variance.

Tips to picking your home run bets

A few key factors worth checking before locking in your picks:

• Matchup: How does the batter fare against this starter's primary pitch mix?
• Ballpark: Is there a short porch, elevation advantage, or favorable wind forecast?
• Bullpen: If the starter exits early, who's coming in — and are they prone to the long ball?
• Weather: Wind direction and temperature matter. Always check before first pitch.
• Head-to-Head History: Past at-bats against today's starter can reveal hidden edges.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.