Experts release new '25 NBA title probabilities after Dončić-Davis bombshell upends odds

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Written by Mac Douglass
Reviewed by Nick Slade
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Updated NBA Championship betting odds and probabilities after the Lakers' trade for Luka Dončić.
The Lakers’ acquisition of Luka Dončić has reshaped the NBA title race, with updated betting odds reflecting the blockbuster trade.

Just hours after news broke of one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, 2025 NBA Championship winning probabilities and futures odds have been turned on their heads.

Lakers Land Luka in Blockbuster Deal

In a late-night move that has sent shockwaves through the league, the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Luka Dončić from the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Anthony Davis as part of a three-team deal involving the Utah Jazz, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania

The Lakers also received Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris, while the Mavericks landed Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round pick. The Jazz received Jalen Hood-Schifino along with second-round selections from both the Clippers and Mavericks.

Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison defended the move, citing a belief in defensive-oriented rosters winning championships: 

"I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We're built to win now and in the future."

However, the trade, which reportedly stemmed from ongoing concerns over Dončić’s conditioning, immediately shifted the balance of power in the NBA.

Updated 2025 NBA Championship Probabilities:

Following this seismic transaction, our analysts reran their advanced data model to determine how this trade affects each team’s 2025 NBA Championship probability. Meanwhile, Bet365 has released new futures odds, reflecting the betting market’s reaction to the deal.


Below are the updated probabilities from Dimers' model, alongside the latest Bet365 odds:

Team
Probability
Bet365 Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder
23.5%
+230
Boston Celtics
23.1%
+230
New York Knicks
8.4%
+1200
Cleveland Cavaliers
7.4%
+800
Denver Nuggets
5.3%
+1400
Los Angeles Lakers
4.5%
+1200
Los Angeles Clippers
3.1%
+3300
Memphis Grizzlies
2.7%
+2800
Dallas Mavericks
2.5%
+2800
Minnesota Timberwolves
2.4%
+5000

The Lakers saw their championship probability land at 4.5% following the acquisition of Dončić, sixth best in the NBA. The Lakers' 2025 NBA title odds at Bet365 sit at +1200, tied for fourth shortest in the NBA.

Conversely, the Mavericks now have rank ninth in NBA with a 2.5% title probability. Meanwhile, Dallas' +2800 are now tied for the NBA's seventh shortest.

What’s next for the Lakers and Mavericks?

The Lakers are set to debut their new superstar duo of LeBron James and Dončić on Tuesday night against the Clippers, while the Mavericks, who are not expected to have Davis is in the lineup, will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday.

The full impact of this trade remains to be seen, but for now, it has completely reshaped the NBA’s championship outlook. As the season progresses, these odds and probabilities could continue to shift based on how both teams adjust to their new rosters.

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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
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Written by
Mac Douglass
Senior Editor

Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.

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