European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending May 22

Ahead of the final week of the European soccer season, Prospector Sam is back with a final set of picks to tide you over.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION. As I mentioned last week, the final month of the soccer calendar can be filled with landmines for gambling, with so many teams having nothing to play for and with some of the worst teams fighting for their lives. And sure, the challenge of sports gambling is being able to distill tons of information and make smart decisions, but it’s generally an easier process without those added variables. Think, playing Russian Roulette with 2 bullets in the chamber rather than 1, for an appropriate but gruesome analogy.

Does that mean we take our ball and go home? Absolutely not. Obviously we still want some action (especially because it’s our last chance for 3 months), and as long as we go into it with our eyes open about the potential dangers then we should be able to solve the puzzle and make some money. With that, I’ve successfully built in my excuse for if things don’t go according to plan, so now I can dive in head first with no fear! (not really, I take this very seriously and I hate losing, so rest assured these picks have been well thought through).

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🇩🇪 Freiburg vs. Leipzig: Saturday May 21, 2 PM EST

A DFB Pokal final without Bayern or Dortmund is bizarre, but even the most predictable competitions can have unexpected results and that’s what happened here. Leipzig finished fourth in the Bundesliga on the back of a disappointing campaign, but still managed to secure UCL soccer for next year, while Freiburg overperformed and ended in 6th place which includes the lovely prize of Thursday Europa League matches and trips to Moldova and Azerbaijan. Basically, neither are all that spectacular, but Leipzig is (and should be) a comfortable favorite to win this competition. While I think that’s likely the case, I’d rather not touch the result because Finals can be a nightmare and I love both teams to score. These sides played two 1-1 draws this season, and neither have looked all that spectacular defensively. In fact, that’s a common theme in Germany these days, where 0 teams kept a sub-1 GAA. This is also a fairly rare opportunity for either of these teams to lift a trophy when you consider the stranglehold that Bayern has on German competitions, and both will come out firing to take advantage of a very winnable match. Cautious play is a concern, as is Leipzig taking a lead and sitting on it (they’re the better defensive team), but I think we get an exciting game here and I see goals on both ends. Bet this one heavily.

⛏️ PICK: Both Teams To Score (-134) 2U

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🇫🇷 Lens vs. Monaco: Saturday May 21, 3 PM EST

Time to move on to league matches that still have some significance. While PSG comfortably handled Ligue 1 this season, Monaco had to fight back from a disaster start that saw them sitting in the bottom half for a short stint. That said, they’ve still managed to make it all the way to second place and can lock up a spot in the UCL Group Stage with a win here. While Lens aren’t pushovers, and actually have an outside chance at qualifying for the Conference League, Monaco have simply been too impressive lately (9 straight wins) to bet against them. So what’s the angle? Rather than taking the Money Line, we go with the safety of over 1.5 goals for the visitors, which is about the same price with a lot of extra safety (I’ve explained this theory ad nauseam by now, I won’t bore you with it again). In those 9 wins, Monaco have scored multiple goals 8 times, and Lens aren’t a formidable defensive side. I think Monaco should reach this number comfortably, especially with all they have to play for, and this feels like a great angle for us to attack.

⛏️ PICK: Monaco Team Total Over 1.5 (-128) 1.5U

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🇮🇹 Sassuolo vs. AC Milan: Sunday May 22, 12 PM EST

Time to get a little weird. I’m starting with that line so you understand that we will be betting this one cautiously, but I wanted to find a way to get some action on the Serie A Title, which is the only trophy still up for grabs aside from the EPL. As you can imagine, the ML and goal totals on AC Milan and Inter aren’t very good, considering they both play sides with absolutely zero motivation. So, while I wanted to look for ways to attack those goal total angles, I just couldn’t find the value (Inter was a staggering -600 for over 1.5 goals, which is just preposterous). But, while it takes a bit of mental gymnastics to work this one out, I think AC Milan to score in both halves is a solid bet at -104. The premise is pretty simple. Sassuolo give up goals by the boatload (63 in 37 matches) and AC Milan should make it to AT LEAST 2. And, if that’s the case, our biggest concern is really whether they find the net in the first half (assuming that, if they break open the game early, they should be able to find a goal later as play opens up). I think Milan will come out and attack knowing the only thing that matters is 3 points to win the title, and they will find a goal (or more in the first half). After that they’ll continue to push and try to put the game away, which should give us the second half goal. It’s our lightest bet of the week (for obvious reasons, this pick is a bit more forced), but the value is solid to bump up to -104 and it’s not a bad route to take.

⛏️ PICK: AC Milan to Score in Both Halves (-104) 1U

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