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EPL 2021/22 Soccer Picks and Predictions Sun Dec 26
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this Sunday's English Premier League soccer action.
BOXING DAY! What was once a “holiday” I had no idea existed because I’m not some weird Brit who needs a special day to box things up has turned into one of my favorite days of the year. All the Premier League soccer you could ever want wrapped up in a nice little bow when all of the other Leagues across Europe go on a holiday break. A true commitment to capitalism and the extra money to be brought in by giving the fans what they want and forcing athletes to trot out and spend their time entertaining us instead of relaxing with their families.
And, even with the added challenge of Covid and a chaotic fixture schedule, yours truly is plugging along happily with win after win including a 6-1 slate last weekend across both articles. Pressure creates diamonds, and I’m shining like the sparkly little guy on the overpriced ring that you bought the person you were already planning on marrying in order to ask them to marry you (we are all suckers, is the point of that comment). And, while we don’t have anything on the continent to keep us busy this weekend, we do have loads on the Prem to get our juices flowing and make some money.
Let’s get to it! ⤵️
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Wolves vs. Watford, Sun Dec 26, 7:30am (ET)
Just in case you want to get up at 7:30 and watch some soccer, I figured I should give you a bet to work with. You might be wondering, why not give me a bet for the clearly better and more interesting game between Liverpool and Leeds? Well, my dear tot, it’s because that game’s odds are all sorts of fucked up by recent performances, and I think it’s a bad one to get frisky with (and, honestly, you should geneally avoid getting too frisky with anything). As for this game, my bet is going to be centered on the abomination that is Wolves. This team sits in 8th place and is on a decent run of form, but they’ve scored 13 goals in 18 games and I just don’t know how you can trust a team like that. They’re walking the same tightrope Sheffield did a couple of seasons ago where they tried to win every game 1-0, but, as the Blades learned, that doesn’t work long term and now they’re playing in the Championship. Watford certainly isn’t a good team and their defense has more holes than a colander, but they’ve put up 21 tallies in 16 matches and 1 will pretty much ensure that they walk away from this game with at least a point. I’ll take Watford on the Double Chance here, which is fairly decent value at -110, and I’ll probably wake up hungover with 10 minutes left to see how things went (and maybe to get some bacon to ease my stomach pain).
⛏️ PICK: Watford double chance (-110)
MORE: Wolves vs. Watford simulator
Norwich vs. Arsenal, Sun Dec 26, 10:00am (ET)
Any time I bet on Arsenal to do something good, be on high alert. It should tell you two things: (1) I really believe in the bet because I LOATHE betting on Arsenal and (2) be wary because the gambling god’s have a cruel sense of humor and enjoy watching me suffer when I bet on the teams I dislike. All that said, I’m getting creative here and I like Arsenal to keep a clean sheet. Why? Well, look no further than the inept pile of mush (which is a pretty appropriate description of Norwich’s colors too) across the field from them. The Canaries have scored just 8 goals in 34 games, including 0 in 4 of their last 5, while Arsenal are in strong form and have won their last 3 Premier League matches. The Gunner’s aren’t exactly a defensive stronghold like Liverpool or City, but that’s why we also get some decent value here at +108 on the bet for a game that I believe is not likely to see a goal for Norwich. Arsenal average just slightly more than a goal per game conceded, and against the worst offense in the league, they seem more likely than not to keep that clean sheet. With positive odds on the bet, that means we’re getting value by taking them to do it.
⛏️ PICK: Arsenal to keep a clean sheet (+108)
MORE: Norwich vs. Arsenal simulator
Man City vs. Leicester, Sun Dec 26, 10:00am (ET)
Maybe the marquee matchup of the day, and a perfect way to settle in and enjoy a nice cup of coffee as the throbbing in my head starts to ease after loads of greasy food and as many advil as I can take without dying. And, to keep things positive after the sadness of “betting on Arsenal to be happy”, let’s go with a bet that’ll be a bit more enjoyable for all of us. I like Both Teams to Score here a lot, and I think the value on it is crazy. To start, City are close to a lock to score a goal, which means that we’re really only focusing on Leicester to score to get across the finish line. Sure, it’s possible that the Foxes keep a clean sheet but they’ve conceded 27 in 16 games and City have scored 44 in 18. I’m pretty comfortable with the assumption that City will find it in them to get at least a goal. Turning to the other side, I think there’s a lot of reason to expect Leicester also break down City. Sure, the Citizens have a great defensive record and have only conceded 9 times this campaign, but Leicester’s 27 goals put them in 5th in the League with multiple games in hand, and their struggles this season have nothing to do with an inability to perform offensively. Even more important, they’re one of the best teams in the league on the counter, which is exactly how you break down a City team who are likely to dominate possession. Leicester have scored in all but 3 EPL matches this season, and I think they have enough talent to get one by this daunting back line.
⛏️ PICK: Both teams to score - YES (-110)
MORE: Man City vs. Leicester simulator
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea, Sun Dec 26, 12:30pm (ET)
Chelsea simply haven’t been Chelsea recently. That had a lot to do with their entire offense being out with Covid, which appears to be cleared up by this point, but it also had a lot to do with their defense (or lack thereof) over the last few matches. Tuchel built this team from the back, and they had been fairly successful in keeping teams off the scoresheet since his arrival last season, but they’ve been hemorrhaging goals to some weaker teams recently and it’s a cause for concern. And, in line with that dynamic, we’re going to bet on a higher scoring game here and take the over 2.5. The return of Lukaku and a few other pieces should help the West Londoners score against a Villa side that are fairly outgunned in this match (unless their benefactor, Prince William, sticks his grubby fingers into things to tilt the odds. Never trust those royals). Assuming they can put up at least 2, which I think they can, we really only need one out of Villa to get over the line and I expect, based on my previous statements, that they manage to find at least one. While BTTS may seem like a safer bet here, we lose some unnecessary return by taking that option and block off the possibility that Chelsea come out and wipe the floor with Villa (which, on their best day, they’re capable of doing). At -102 the payout is very solid for a game I see as more of a shootout than the books do, and I’ll take a big swing on some fireworks as my hangover starts to subside (and I start drinking again. It’s noon, don’t judge me).
⛏️ PICK: Total goals OVER 2.5 (-102)
MORE: Aston Villa vs. Chelsea simulator
Free Premier League Parlay
Now, Prospector Sam himself hasn't pushed for this parlay, but it's Christmas, so why not?
Combine his four picks to go after some big odds this Sunday!
🔥 Watford double chance
🔥 Arsenal clean sheet
🔥 Man City - Leicester both teams to score
🔥 Chelsea - Villa o2.5 goals
💰 Parlay odds (+1400)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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