Dolphins vs. Bengals Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Betting Lines for Thursday Night Football on September 29

The Cincinnati Bengals will be hoping to get back to .500 when they host the undefeated Miami Dolphins at 8:15PM ET on Thursday, September 29, 2022. After something of a dud in last week's Thursday night game, this is one that should have football fans around the world feeling pretty excited. 

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Dolphins vs. Bengals betting preview below. 

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Dolphins vs. Bengals Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 63% chance the Bengals win on the money line
• 52% probability the Bengals cover the -3.5 spread
• 54% chance Dolphins-Bengals goes Under 47 points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Dolphins vs. Bengals data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Dolphins vs. Bengals Odds and Betting Lines

The Points Spread (Bengals -3.5)

Since the start of last season, the Bengals are 10-2 against the spread when facing teams with winning records and they have won those games by an average of 7.5 points per game. Cincinnati is also 13-4 ATS when facing a defense that gives up 235 or more passing yards per game since the start of the 2020-21 season. With that in mind, we expect to see a locked-in version of the Bengals on Thursday. 

Cincinnati started the season with an 0-2 record, but the team responded with a dominant 27-12 victory as a 6.5-point road favorite against the New York Jets last week. It was quarterback Joe Burrow's best game of the season, with the star throwing for 275 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in the win. Burrow should be able to torch this Dolphins defense, as long as his offensive line holds up. But with this being a home primetime game, we expect Cincinnati to show up in all phases of the game. 

MORE: NFL Futures Probabilities

Miami has looked great to start the season, with Tua Tagovailoa having taken a leap now that he has star wideout Tyreek Hill to get the ball to and a brilliant offensive game plan to execute. Second-year wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is also looking as explosive as he did as a rookie, and the team has some solid options at running back in Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. But it is fair to wonder how the Dolphins will play after earning an emotional win last week. 

This Miami squad gave everything it had to beat the Buffalo Bills last week, and it's going to be hard for the Dolphins to reset the batteries in such a short week. Tagovailoa might not be himself in this game either, as he was beaten up quite a bit by the Bills. If he's not at full strength, the Bengals should have no trouble winning this one. 

All in all, this just isn't that big of a spread and Cincinnati appears to be playing with a sense of urgency now. We expect the Bengals to roll in this home game and get right back in the mix in the AFC North. 

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Over/Under Points Total (47.5)

The total in this game opened all the way down at 44 and is on the way up, which isn't all that surprising when you consider who's playing. These are two offenses that love to give their quarterbacks a chance to sling it, and this should be a game that features quite a few big plays through the air. With that said, it's just hard to play the Under here — even if teams aren't quite as sharp in Thursday games. 

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The Dolphins are fourth in the league in passing yards per game this season, and the Bengals will eventually settle in near the top. Cincinnati was sixth in the league in that category a year ago, and the team got back to its roots last week. Considering the amount of downfield throws you'll see in this game, you just have to play the Over if you're betting the total. 

Dolphins vs. Bengals Free Picks

Bengals -3.5

Not only has Cincinnati regularly covered against teams with mediocre secondaries under head coach Zac Taylor, but the Bengals are also 7-1 ATS when facing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt in that span. Cincinnati is just well-equipped to win in shootouts and we think the team will prevail here. 

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