Doggy Juice: Mike Roselli's Weekend Sweat - Pizza Money

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October 16, 2020 3:41 AM

After another winning round against the sportsbooks last week, we are back with a three-pack of best bets from the latest episode of the Doggy Juice Podcast – this time all in the NFL.

RELATED: Latest ep of the Doggy Juice Podcast!

Let's get into itπŸ‘‡


 

🏈 Rams @ 49ers: 49ers +3

The look-ahead line on this game at the beginning of last week was 49ers -3. So what exactly changed in the interim to warrant the Rams laying -3 and as high as -3.5 in the marketplace? Well, the Rams did indeed impress on the road against Washington while the Niners got clobbered at home against the Dolphins last week. But outside of a major injury to a starting quarterback or a significant group of cluster injuries to a specific position, a six-point market move in the span of one week in the NFL is a very rare occurrence.

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This line should be close to a pick’em according to my numbers, so I will gladly take the field goal with the home team in a spot where they will have a distinct advantage on offense against a very weak Rams linebacking corp. The Rams have also logged more than their fair share of travel miles so far this season, and the impact of all of that recent travel may well show itself on Sunday.


 

🏈 Cardinals @ Cowboys: Cowboys +1.5

Last week’s brutal season-ending injury to star quarterback Dak Prescott certainly shook things up for a Cowboys team that was already reeling with injuries to start the season. But backup QB Andy Dalton is one of the best replacements in the entire league and is set to assume the role of leading the dynamic Dallas offense against an Arizona defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders. In fact, I am only downgrading the Cowboys just a tick over three points on my power ratings after the move from Dak to Dalton.

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The wrong team is favored at AT&T Stadium on Monday evening, so one should gladly scoop up the +1.5 with a Dallas squad that should be able to move the ball against the opposition with relative ease. Add in the fact that the Cardinals enter this game after traveling across the country twice in the past two weeks and it’s a fantastic spot to back the home dogs in a game where they may also bring more sustained energy. The Cowboys are an excellent teaser option for your NFL Week 6 portfolio as well.


 

🏈 Six-point, two-team teaser: Colts -1.5 and Bucs +7.5

As we stated here last week, a two-team, six-point NFL teaser that crosses through the key numbers of 3 and 7 can give bettors a mathematical edge over the book (as long as the vigorish isn’t too much above the standard -110). There is a bevy of options that fit this model on the Week 6 card, especially if bettors shop around for the best available price in the marketplace.

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Teasing the Colts down from -7.5 to -1.5 on one leg of a two-teamer this week essentially takes the spread out of the equation and asks the far superior team to win at home in a spot where they will be eager to rebound from last week’s loss on the road in Cleveland. Expect the Colts to dominate the Bengals on both sides of the line in this one.

Much like the aforementioned 49ers/Rams matchup, the Buccaneers were laying -3 against the Packers on last week’s look-ahead line. Yes, the Bucs underwhelmed in their Thursday night loss to the Bears, but the market has over-adjusted this spread and I believe Tom Brady and Co. hold standalone value at +1 or better at home against the Packers on Sunday. As such, teasing the Bucs up from +1.5 to +7.5 provides a nice mathematical edge in the second leg of our two-teamer.

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