Doggy Juice - Mike Roselli's Weekend Sweat


October 9, 2020 3:12 AM

Sports are coming at us from all directions this week, and while oddsmakers have to put up a line on every game, we as bettors get to pick and choose where we put our money. 

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Here’s another three-pack of best bets in college football and the NFL from this week’s Doggy Juice Podcast episode.


🏈 Mississippi @ Kentucky: Kentucky ML (-125*)

Backing the 0-2 Wildcats as short home favorites is one of my favorite plays on this weekend’s college football card. We are seeing the Mike Leach effect on the point spread in this one, especially with the Bulldogs’ outright win over LSU in his debut still fresh in everyone’s minds. My numbers make this game closer to 6, so I will gladly back Kentucky here in a spot where I fully expect coach Mark Stoops to have his team fired up with their backs against the wall after a frustrating 0-2 start.

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Despite the 0-2 record to begin the season, the Wildcats outgained both Auburn and Ole Miss in each of their first two games. They have been victims to turnovers early on, especially in the red zone, but still boast one of the strongest offensive lines in all of college football. Backing Kentucky this week has value at -3 or less. I recommend a split ticket on the spread at -2.5 or better and on the moneyline at -125 or better.


🏈 Eagles @ Steelers: Total points Under 45

Be sure to shop around for the best price on this one, as the number has dipped since sitting as high as 46.5 early in the week. But after getting as low as 42.5 in some spots, 44s and 44.5s are starting to show again in the marketplace. At 43.5 or better, the Under between the two Pennsylvania teams is a worthy add to your Sunday NFL portfolio.

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The Eagles travel across the country on short rest after beating the 49ers outright as 8.5-point underdogs on Sunday Night Football (cashing for our inaugural three-pack last week in the process). They take on a Steelers team that hasn’t played in two weeks after their Week 4 matchup was cancelled due to the Titans’ COVID-19 dilemma. Pittsburgh’s strong defense will be rested, but the offense may need to shake off some rust. Points will be hard to come by for the visitor and we may also see some nasty weather roll through Pittsburgh during this one.


🏈 Six-point, two-team teaser: Browns +7.5 and Saints -1.5

Talk to any oddsmaker this week and they will tell you about how many teasers they expect to book with all of the favorites sitting on the board laying somewhere in the neighborhood of a touchdown. A two-team, six-point NFL teaser that crosses through the key numbers of 3 and 7 can give a bettor a mathematical edge over the book, as long as the vigorish isn’t too much above the standard -110.

The classic Stanford Wong teaser model applies to plenty of teams on the NFL Week 5 board, and according to my numbers, the strongest options to pair together are the Browns up to +7.5 at home against the Colts and the Saints down to -1.5 at home against the Chargers. With this teaser play, we essentially need Cleveland to keep the game within a touchdown against Indianapolis in what should be a lower-scoring contest and New Orleans to win outright in primetime against a rookie quarterback.

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