After two years of keeping Chicagoland listeners up to date on sports betting legalization developments and finding value on the betting boards, I am excited to bring the Doggy Juice Podcast to a new platform at Dimers.
Here’s a three-pack of best bets in college football and the NFL from this week’s podcast episode.
The wrong team is favored in Morgantown this Saturday. Baylor looked terrific in its opener last week, beating Kansas 47-14 and giving new head coach Dave Aranda a win in his first game at the helm. But there is still going to be an assimilation process with new parts and a new system in place for the Bears, and the betting market is giving them a bit too much love on the road against a West Virginia team that will be eager to right the ship after losing 27-13 against Oklahoma State last week.
The Mountaineers hit some speed bumps in Stillwater, highlighted by a struggling offensive line that gave up way too many penalties. But this is an excellent spot to regroup and establish their passing game early on against a Baylor defense that may be vulnerable on Saturday. I will gladly scoop the 3 points with the home dog in this spot and recommend a play on the moneyline at +125 or better as well.
The side and total have been bet down in this matchup throughout the week, and I agree with both line moves. But there is still value on the visiting Chargers catching +7 or more on the road and a tick of value on the Under at 43.5 or better.
We know that the Chargers’ MO is keeping games close, and coach Anthony Lynn and company are normally not a team you want to play as a favorite, continually finding ways to blow leads and allow opponents to stay within striking distance through suboptimal offensive play-calling. But on the flipside they are definitely a team that tends to excel in the underdog role – and catching a full touchdown here in what should be a defensive battle is a great numbers play against a Tom Brady-led offense that may have a tough time against a formidable Chargers defensive unit. The vultures are chipping away at the number, but the visitors are worth a play at +7 if you shop around for one.
One of my absolute favorite angles in sports betting that I learned from the late handicapper David Malinsky – an angle that the market does not seem to normally price in – is looking to play against teams returning from a long, extended time away from home. This can manifest in a number of sports when teams end long, multi-week road trips – and this situation applies to the banged-up San Francisco 49ers this Sunday night.
The idea is this: quite often it is advantageous looking to fade teams that have been away from home for an extended period in that very first home game because of all the distractions associated with returning home after such a long time away. Put yourself in their shoes and think about all of the things you have to catch up on when you return from a long holiday. Maybe it’s getting up to speed with missed work or maybe it’s laundry – or maybe it’s just spending quality time with the loved ones you missed while you were gone. Either way, athletes, coaches and trainers come back home to a lot of the same distractions as we do. And this keeps them away from fully preparing for their next game.
The 49ers had been away from the Bay Area for a fortnight until earlier this week, choosing to remain on the East Coast in between games against the two New York teams. Add in a desperate winless team with the Eagles, who amazingly picked up ground in the NFC East last week after a disappointing tie with the Bengals. Yes, Wentz has looked terrible so far, but that’s why we are getting this inflated price on Philadelphia in this spot. Remember that when the season started both of these teams were one win apart in regular-season win total markets. The Eagles have suffered numerous injuries since the start of the season, but the Niners have as well. This line should be closer to 4.5, making Philly +7 a worthy play for your Week 4 card.