Doggy Juice: Mike Roselli's Weekend Preview - Finding Edges


October 23, 2020 12:34 AM

Coming off yet another profitable week, we are back with a three-pack of best bets from the latest episode of the Doggy Juice Podcast.

RELATED: Latest ep of the Doggy Juice Podcast!

Let's get into itπŸ‘‡


🏈 Iowa State @ Oklahoma State: Iowa State +3.5

The betting market continues to undervalue coach Matt Campbell’s talented Iowa State squad. Not only does his team feature a formidable defense, but the offense is a lot more balanced this season behind talented multidimensional quarterback Brock Purdy. The Cyclones are 13-1 in the month of October with Purdy under center, with the one loss coming last year against this Saturday’s opponent, Oklahoma State.

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Fast forward one year later and don’t doubt for a second that the Iowa State coaching staff has had this one circled on their calendar. Both teams enter Saturday with extra rest, but in a game that I have lined close to a pick’em, I’ll gladly gobble up the Cyclones as consensus 3.5-point underdogs and also sprinkle some moneyline at a nice plus price in a revenge spot.


🏈 Cowboys @ Washington: Cowboys Pick

If you’ve been betting the Cowboys against the spread in each game this season, you’re still waiting to cash your first ticket. But this is a terrific buy-low opportunity on a Dallas team that was laying three points on last week’s look-ahead line for Sunday’s game at Washington.

READ: 5 Steps to placing an online sports bet

The betting public is clearly reluctant to get behind the Cowboys after Monday night’s dismal performance at home against the Cardinals, but we have to remember that it was also replacement QB Andy Dalton’s very first game at the helm following Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury the week prior. Now Dalton has had another week practicing with the starters and Dallas steps down in class on the road against a struggling Washington team in a perfect get-right spot.


🏈 Six-point, two-team teaser: Lions +8.5 and Chargers -1.5

Advantage teasers in the NFL continue to cash at a high rate this season. As we stated here previously, a two-team, six-point NFL teaser that crosses through the key numbers of 3 and 7 can give bettors a mathematical edge over the book (as long as the vigorish isn’t too much above the standard -110). Just like last week, there are several options that fit our teaser model on the NFL Week 7 card.

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Teasing the Lions up through 3 and 7 to +8.5 on the road in Atlanta oozes with value in a matchup where it’s entirely possible that the wrong team is favored. My numbers showed great value on Detroit catching a field goal earlier in the week, and even after the market move down to +2.5 on the dog, the Lions are a fantastic candidate as one leg of a two-teamer.

There are plenty of options to pair with Detroit, including the 49ers up to +8 on the road at New England and the Saints down to -1.5 at home against Carolina, but perhaps the best avenue for us is to key in the Chargers down to -1.5 versus Jacksonville in a spot where we are essentially asking a well-rested team coming off their bye week to win outright against a Jaguars squad that has given up more than 30 or more points to opponents in five straight contests.