Doggy Juice: Mike Roselli's Three-Pack of Picks - Election betting and weekend football action

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November 6, 2020 2:00 AM

After another winning week, here’s another three-pack of best bets in college football and the NFL from this week’s episode of the Doggy Juice Podcast. You know the drill…

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Let's get into itπŸ‘‡


 

🏈 Arizona State @ USC
Arizona State +11

Both programs kick off their shortened 2020 Pac-12 campaigns with an early start at 9 a.m. local time. Which team does the early kickoff benefit more? I’d argue the one with the more disciplined coach, and that’s Arizona State’s Herm Edwards. I’ll admit, I was a skeptic when Edwards took over the program in Tempe two years ago. But he has turned the entire culture around in quick order and will have his kids ready for this one.

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The Sun Devils bring an experienced secondary filled with seniors who have spent the past few weeks preparing for talented USC quarterback Kedon Slovis. Yes, the Trojans are the more talented team, but they are laying too many points in this one. Pay special attention to Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels, who is poised to take another leap this year after putting up 17 touchdowns to only two interceptions last season. The Over on the Sun Devils’ team total is also worth a look Saturday, especially if you can find it at 21 or better.


 

🏈 Dolphins @ Cardinals
Cardinals -4

The well-rested Cardinals enter this game coming off their bye week against a Dolphins team brimming with confidence following last weekend’s 28-17 victory over the Rams as 3.5-point home underdogs in rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa’s first career start. But Tua didn’t have to do much last week, and he will need to produce on Sunday in order to keep up with Kyler Murray and an Arizona offense that is top-10 in offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders.

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The Dolphins will be without starting RB Miles Gaskin due to a knee injury. Expect Tua to get a real taste of NFL defenses Sunday against a team that has had extra time to prepare for him. This line should be closer to a touchdown, so I will gladly lay the -4 with the well-rested home team here.


 

🏈 Saints @ Bucs:
Saints +4.5

This is my favorite play on the NFL Week 9 betting board. Let’s do a little exercise by examining what the line was in Week 1 when these two teams met in New Orleans to kick off the season and comparing it to the line we’re seeing now, two months later:

The Saints were 4.5-point favorites and won 34-23 in that opening-week matchup, covering the spread in the process. What has happened since that time? Well, the Bucs’ D has clearly emerged as one of the league’s elite defenses, while Tom Brady has taken command of an offense loaded with talent at the skill positions (albeit not always healthy). On the other side of the field, the Saints are quietly 5-2 to start the season despite having their fair share of injury issues as well. But wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both expected to be back for this game, which will be a huge boost for Drew Brees and the Saints offense.

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With Tampa Bay laying 4 or more points, this line has completely flipped since Week 1. That’s a big overreaction to two teams that are nearly equal on my power ratings. With a limited home field advantage, backing Brees and the Saints at +4 is an excellent option for your Week 9 card. Be sure to gobble up some moneyline with the dog as well.