Doggy Juice: Mike Roselli's Three-Pack of Picks - Live from Colorado


December 4, 2020 7:55 PM

It's Thanksgiving Weekend and we have a massive menu of sports, which Mike is to break down into some small, consumable bets!

It’s time for another three-pack of plays from this week’s episode of the Doggy Juice Podcast.

LISTEN: Latest ep of the Doggy Juice Podcast!

Let's get into itπŸ‘‡


🏈 Florifa @ Tennessee
Tennessee +17.5

It has been tough sledding for the Tennessee Volunteers lately, failing to win and cover in their last five games. But that’s why we’re seeing an inflated price ahead of this weekend’s matchup when Heisman favorite Kyle Trask and the Florida Gators come to town. For reference, I would have made Florida a 7-point road favorite in this matchup if this game was played Week 1 based on my preseason numbers, and while I have certainly upgraded the Gators while simultaneously downgrading the Volunteers even more since the season started, 10 points is too far of an adjustment, especially when it involves a Tennessee team with an extra week’s rest and extra time to prepare.

This is a strong numbers play with solid betting value on the home dog and the Dimers Bot agrees, showing a nice 4.3% edge on the Volunteers as they take on a Florida team that isn’t exactly used to traveling up to Knoxville in December.

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🏈 Browns @ Titans
Browns +6 (Reduce investment slightly at +5.5)

There is a point spread tax on Tennessee’s professional football team after successive road wins in Baltimore and Indianapolis. We were on the Titans last week’s episode of the Doggy Juice Pod, but behind that 45-26 dismantling of the Colts there were critical injuries to Indy offensive linemen, and that blowout is surely helping open up betting value this Sunday backing the visiting Browns.

Cleveland can go toe to toe with the Tennessee ground game and the stage is set for quarterback Baker Mayfield to enjoy an efficient outing against a vulnerable Titans secondary. I have this game power-rated Titans -3.2 but that’s not even adjusting for the notion that this is a prime letdown spot for the home team. The return of stud defensive end Myles Garrett from the COVID-19 list should also provide a spark the Browns defense. Reduce the investment on Cleveland at +5.5, but be sure to also add some moneyline to your portfolio with a very live underdog.

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🏈 NFL 6-point, 2-team teaser:
Raiders -2.5 and Packers -2.5

Advantage teasers in the NFL continue to cash at a very high rate in 2020, and we are 7-2 on the official Doggy Juice Pod Teasers of the Week this season. As stated here previously, a two-team, six-point NFL teaser that crosses through the key numbers of 3 and 7 can give us bettors a nice little mathematical edge over the book (as long as the vigorish isn’t too much above the standard -110).

After a relatively quiet Week 12, there are plenty of options that fit our model on the Week 13 card. Perhaps none of those options are better than teasing the Raiders down from -8.5 to -2.5 on the road against the Jets and the Packers from -8.5 down to -2.5 at home against the Eagles on Sunday.

Coach Jon Gruden and the Raiders were embarrassed last week against the Falcons and shouldn’t be overlooking their opponent this weekend, even if that opponent is a Jets team that features a league-worst -1.2 net yards per play and a management that clearly wants the players to compete their way to the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. We’re asking the Raiders to do little more than win the game outright by teasing them down to -2.5.

Let’s do the same with the Packers this week in a spot where they will square off against an Eagles team coming off short rest after losing to the Seahawks on Monday night. Even if it’s not exactly a “get up” game for Green Bay, teasing Aaron Rodgers at home down to -2.5 and asking the NFL’s No. 5 team in total DVOA at Football Outsiders to beat the No. 27 team as one leg of a two-team teaser makes this a worthy addition to our Week 13 NFL card.

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