In a very special episode to close out the year, my guest Jake and I take a big-picture view of where things stand in the sports betting industry and offer predictions on where we think things will go from here. And of course there are also picks for this weekend’s action on the college and NFL gridirons.
Here’s a three-pack of plays from this week’s episode.
Cincinnati had a banner season but stumbled to close it out due to Covid-19 issues. There’s no question that the program had a collective feeling of deflation after not even coming close to qualifying for the College Football Playoff despite a perfect 9-0 record. While Georgia’s coaches and players also had their sights set on the CFP at the start of the year, they had that dream deflated for good over a month ago after their loss to quarterback Kyle Trask and Florida. Since that time the Bulldogs made the change at quarterback back to JT Daniels and it appears that I have him rated as more of an upgrade than the betting market is taking into account.
This game is taking place in Atlanta, which is close to home for many of the Georgia players, and laying a touchdown or less on the clearly superior team is a great bet to kick off the new year.
💰 Pick: Georgia -6.5 (Reduce position at -7)
Catching the touchdown and the hook with Ohio State is another solid option for your New Year’s Day portfolio. Not only do I think this line is inflated after Clemson crushed Notre Dame in the ACC title game while Ohio State struggled to put away Northwestern a few weeks ago, but I also expect the Buckeyes to have a bit of a fire lit under them after Clemson coach Dabo Swinney’s recent comments to the media about Ohio State’s lack of CFP credentials.
The Buckeyes have been excellent in recent years in the rare spots where they are a betting underdog. Per college football handicapper Brad Powers, dating back to 2012, Ohio State is 8-1 straight-up as an underdog, covering by over 19 points per game in thart span. The only loss as a dog during that stretch was last year in this same game against Clemson, so the Buckeyes will be bringing a revenge angle to Friday’s game as well. Be sure to shop around for the best spread price and also diversify your portfolio with some moneyline at +240 or better on a very live dog.
💰 Pick: Ohio State +7.5 (Reduce position at +7)
We have been big fans of the Matt Campbell-Brock Purdy tandem for Iowa State on the Doggy Juice Podcast over the past two years, cashing many an underdog moneyline ticket on a Cyclones team that the betting market continues to misprice in select spots. My numbers are showing just enough value on them at -4 or better in the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon to get into play on Saturday.
Purdy will be eligible for the NFL Draft after this game, so you better believe he is going to be looking to impress scouts. And on top of that, he is returning to his home state of Arizona for this one, meaning there will likely be a certain comfort level being close to the familiarities of home amid all of the distractions that come with playing in a New Year’s Six bowl game along with the travel issues present in the age of the Covid-19 pandemic. It also doesn’t hurt to look at the way the Big 12 has performed during bowl season relative to the Pac-12. It’s one more chance to get into play on that angle and perhaps also back the Campbell-Purdy duo with a wager one final time.
💰 Pick: Iowa State -4
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