The Doggy Juice Podcast is broadcasting live from Colorado, home to many of America’s new sportsbooks. Coming off another 3-0 week, here’s a three-pack of best bets from this week’s episode.
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PA - DraftKings Sportsbook
NJ - William Hill (200% Deposit Match)
IN - William Hill (200% Deposit Match)
CO - William Hill (200% Deposit Match)
IL - PointsBet (Up to 200% Dep Match)
Minnesota at Nebraska: Minnesota +11 (Reduce investment slightly at +10.5)
The Gophers have been off since the weekend before Thanksgiving due to a Covid-19 outbreak, and that may be why we are seeing an inflated line in this matchup. The line inflation can perhaps also be attributed to the fact that the Cornhuskers have covered two straight games, including an outright win last week at Purdue.
This is a simple numbers play on my stuff. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck has had extra time to prepare for this one, and all we need is for his team to keep this game within single digits to cash our spread tickets. There are still a few +11s out there, but reduce the investment slightly at +10.5 and be sure to add some moneyline to your game portfolio at +310 or better. The Dimers bot agrees!
Saints at Eagles: Under 44.5
The market has moved to the Under in this matchup as the week has dragged on, and I agree with the move. While this play was certainly stronger at 45.5 earlier in the week, there is still enough value at 44 or higher to warrant getting into play. My numbers make the total a tick under 43, but I am not sure my models are even properly taking into account the impact on the Eagles offense from the switch to Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
Not only do I believe that Philadelphia is going to make it a point to run the ball more in order to ease the assimilation process for Hurts as the starter, but I also think it’s going to motivate the Eagles defense to bring some extra energy to support their new starting QB after seeing their previous one struggle to put up points week in and week out. On the other side of the ball we have an improving Saints defense and a QB in Taysom Hill who isn’t necessarily prone to the big play (in fact he finally got his first passing TDs just last week).
With two run-first QBs in Hill and Hurts, two offenses that both rank bottom third in the NFL in first-half pace, two defenses that should fight it out in the trenches, a team in the Eagles that has a new starting QB that they are trying to protect with more conservative play-calling, the Under in Philly on Sunday is a very strong play for your Week 14 card. There are still some 44.5s and 44s out there as I write this, so be sure to shop around in order to get the best available price. Reduce your investment slightly at 44.
It has been a banner year for teasers in the NFL and the Week 14 teaser card is one of the most appetizing lineups of the year. As stated here previously, a two-team, six-point NFL teaser that crosses through the key numbers of 3 and 7, also known as the Stanford Wong teaser, can give us bettors a nice little mathematical edge over the book (as long as the vigorish isn’t too much above the standard -110). Advantage teasers in the NFL continue to cash at a very high rate in 2020, and we are 8-2 on the official Doggy Juice Pod Teasers of the Week this season.
There are several teaser legs that fit the classic Stanford Wong model, including the Titans from -7.5 down to -1.5 against the Jaguars, the Bears from +1.5 up to +7.5 against the Texans, the Packers from -7.5 down to -1.5 against the Lions, and the Chargers from +2.5 up to +8.5. But perhaps none of those options are as advantageous as teasing the top two teams in the AFC North standings up through the 3 and the 7 and essentially asking them to keep their games within one score.
In one leg let’s tease Pittsburgh up from +2.5 to +8.5 at Buffalo on Sunday. Yes, the Steelers are playing their third game in 11 days and are dealing with injury issues, but the point spread is already taking those issues into account. In the other leg let’s tease Cleveland at home from +1.5 up to +7.5 in an inter-division revenge spot against the Ravens. The Browns bring plenty of momentum into Monday night’s showdown and will be eager to make amends for their 38-6 loss at Baltimore in the season opener.