Doggy Juice: Mike Roselli's Three-Pack of Picks - Thanksgiving Weekend


November 26, 2020 11:43 PM

It's Thanksgiving Weekend and we have a massive menu of sports, which Mike is to break down into some small, consumable bets!

It’s time for another three-pack of plays from this week’s episode of the Doggy Juice Podcast.

LISTEN: Latest ep of the Doggy Juice Podcast!

Let's get into itπŸ‘‡


🏈 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -11

The Red Raiders are 0-4 against the spread in their last four road games and I expect that trend to continue in Stillwater on Saturday. Oklahoma State enters this contest after getting lit up by in-state rival Oklahoma last weekend, and the Cowboys will be keen to right the ship and impose their will on an inferior opponent.

Oklahoma State should have no problem moving the ball against a Texas Tech team that allows 462 yards per game. My numbers make this game just a tick above Oklahoma State -15, so the home team is a good bet laying -11 or better.

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🏈 Titans @ Colts
Titans +3.5

You could have had +4 with Tennessee earlier in the week, but there is still enough value catching +3.5 out there in the marketplace to take advantage of a nice value play in the AFC South on Sunday. These teams met two weeks ago and although the Colts appeared to cover comfortably with a 34-17 victory, it was a game that was a lot closer than the scoreboard indicated.

Coach Mike Vrabel and the Titans will be bringing the revenge angle in a rematch with 1st place in the division on the line. This is certainly a stronger play at +4, but catching 3 and the hook with Tennessee is still a worthy addition to your weekend portfolio.

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🏈 Chiefs @ Bucs
Bucs +3.5

I make this game Chiefs -1.5 for this matchup, so according to my numbers we are getting nice value going north up and through a field goal getting points with a Tampa Bay team that is still No. 2 in overall DVOA at Football Outsiders and No. 2 in defensive DVOA. Yes, Kansas City is No. 1 in offensive DVOA, but the Bucs are stingy in opponent yards per play even after losing to the Rams on Monday Night Football, a defeat that likely helped open up the betting value we are seeing on the home dog here.

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