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Nuggets vs. Spurs prediction: San Antonio favored to win Thursday's NBA game [3/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs predictions for NBA Thursday.
NBA action continues on Thursday at 9:00 PM ET as the Denver Nuggets lock horns with the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Spurs game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Spurs lineup will feature players like De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell, while the Nuggets will be led by Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Tim Hardaway.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Spurs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA game between the Nuggets and Spurs 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Spurs a 63% chance of beating the Nuggets. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 122-118.
According to our model, the Spurs (-3.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 242.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.
Nuggets vs. Spurs odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +132 | -150 |
| Total | o242.5 (-108) | u242.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Spurs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Spurs -3.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Spurs | -150 |
| Total | Under 242.5 | -112 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Spurs player props
NBA player props are a great way to wager on Thursday's Nuggets vs. Spurs game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Frost Bank Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 30 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists, while De'Aaron Fox is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists for the Spurs.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 72 |
| Jamal Murray | 26 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 46 |
| Tim Hardaway | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
| Christian Braun | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Cameron Johnson | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
Spurs prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Spurs:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 19 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 38 |
| Stephon Castle | 18 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 41 |
| Devin Vassell | 15 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| Keldon Johnson | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| J. Champagnie | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
Nuggets vs. Spurs game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Spurs and Nuggets at Frost Bank Center is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Nuggets on Thursday, with Nikola Jokic projected for a game-high 72 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Nuggets vs. Spurs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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