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Mavericks vs. Grizzlies prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [3/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies predictions for NBA Thursday.
NBA action continues on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET as the favored Dallas Mavericks square off with the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Mavericks as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Grizzlies game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Grizzlies lineup will feature stars like GG Jackson, Javon Small and Jaylen Wells, while the Mavericks will look to Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Grizzlies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Mavericks and Grizzlies 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mavericks a 70% chance of beating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Mavericks winning 121-116.
According to our model, the Mavericks (-5.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 239.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -215 | +180 |
| Total | o239.5 (-105) | u239.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks -5.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | -215 |
| Total | Under 239.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Under 239.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Thursday's Mavericks vs. Grizzlies game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at FedExForum.
Cooper Flagg is expected to lead the Mavericks with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, while GG Jackson is projected to have 17 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists for the Grizzlies.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 22 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 44 |
| Naji Marshall | 18 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 33 |
| P.J. Washington | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 31 |
| B. Williams | 13 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| Max Christie | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 24 |
Grizzlies prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Grizzlies:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GG Jackson | 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 34 |
| Javon Small | 17 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 42 |
| Jaylen Wells | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| O. Prosper | 16 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| T. Hendricks | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
Mavs vs. Grizzlies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Grizzlies and Mavericks at FedExForum is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: FedExForum
Conclusion
We predict the Mavericks, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies on Thursday, with Cooper Flagg projected for a game-high 44 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Grizzlies insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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