Colts vs. Broncos Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Betting Lines for Thursday Night Football on October 6

The Denver Broncos will be feeling pretty good about their chances against a banged-up Indianapolis Colts team on Thursday, October 6, when these two will meet in the Week 5 Thursday Night Football game at 8:15PM ET. Both of these teams are coming off of tough losses, so they'll each be fired up to get out there and get back in the win column. However, Indianapolis could be pretty shorthanded for this one, which won't be easy for the team to figure out in a short week. 

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Colts vs. Broncos betting preview below. 

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Colts vs. Broncos Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 61% chance the Broncos win on the money line
• 59% probability the Colts cover the +3 spread
• No edge on Colts-Broncos Over/Under 43.5 points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Colts vs. Broncos data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Colts vs. Broncos Odds and Betting Lines

The Points Spread (Broncos -3)

Jonathan Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain last week and he's questionable for this game. Whether he misses this one entirely or just isn't moving as well as usual, it's hard to see how the Colts will get their offense going.

Indianapolis brought in Matt Ryan in the offseason and the veteran hasn't looked good with his new team. And being that he's a quarterback that relies on play-action passes, his game will be in an even worse place if the Colts can't efficiently run between the tackles.  

MORE: NFL Futures Probabilities

The Colts will also be missing their best defensive player, as Shaquille Leonard (the artist formerly known as "Darius") will miss this one with a concussion. Leonard is one of the best linebackers in the entire league, which means that Russell Wilson and this Broncos offense got off easy for this one. 

Denver has been rather unimpressive this season and could easily be 0-4 right now, but this game is just a gift for head coach Nathaniel Hackett's team. On a short week, Indianapolis is going to have a hard time figuring out an entirely new gameplan. And the Broncos have a significant home-field advantage compared to other teams, making that one more thing that's working Denver's favor.

Add in the fact that Indianapolis is just 4-5 both straight-up and against the spread versus AFC West opponents under Frank Reich and you have a game that should really go to the Broncos. 

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Over/Under Points Total (43.5)

Without Leonard, Indianapolis is going to have some trouble stopping a Denver offense that is going to start to pick things up pretty soon. And on the other side of the ball, the Colts will likely play Nyheim Hines a little more than usual, and that means that they'll be throwing it more than usual. This game would have Under written all over it if Taylor was healthy, but this could end up being higher scoring without him at his best. 

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It should also be noted that the Over is 3-1 in the four Thursday games that the Colts have played under Reich, which means that playing the short week doesn't necessarily mean Indianapolis will be playing an ugly, low-scoring game. The Over is also 17-13 in the 30 games that the Colts have played as underdogs in that same span. 

Colts vs. Broncos Free Picks

Broncos -3

The Colts are going to have to completely change the way they play if Taylor is either out or playing with a bum ankle. That gives the Broncos a clear edge at home, especially with Leonard out. This is a game you won't want to overthink. Back Denver at home. 

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