One of the most important, as well as one of the most difficult things to do when trying to place an educated bet is removing your fan bias from the equation.
And every single week, I watch Brian Kelly lead the Irish onto the field and can’t help but have a visceral reaction. So when No. 4 Notre Dame hosts a downtrodden Louisville team this weekend, and is inevitably going to pound them into the ground, I might as well win some money on the action in South Bend.
On the House Edge Podcast, we preach line shopping weekly to make sure you’re getting the best value possible and maximizing your likelihood of making money over time. And that’s easy, just have a handful of apps downloaded and search the game you like.
There are even sites that will do it for you 😊. But I’m sorry, when handicapping Notre Dame, it’s just impossible to remove your preconceived notions with Lou Holtz sputtering some ND nonsense reverberating around your brain.
The best I can do when putting money on Notre Dame is try and best sift through the NBC hype machine, the Golden Dome aura, and actually try and understand where ND is actually good - and does that strength exploit the weakness of its opponent.
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Notre Dame? One of the best offensive lines in college football. A senior quarterback that will take what’s given. And emerging star in tailback Kyren Williams.
Louisville? Can’t stop anyone from scoring. Gives up big plays left and right. Turns the ball over way too much to keep games close.
Just the kind of betting debits and credits that take the emotion out of picking a winner.
And now that I’ve done that...Williams is going to have A GAME! The 5-9 sophomore from St. Louis is averaging 7.5 yards per carry, and is coming off a 185 yard performance against Florida State where he broke multiple explosive plays. Just the kind that Louisville’s defensive attention to detail is going to allow, and probably early.
That matters to this contest because Notre Dame is giving 17.5 points, and getting out to a quick start (a la South Florida) will wrap that up quick. We saw Louisville collapse against Miami and get blown out, and it’s only got worse from there, most recently losing by 19 to Georgia Tech.
Keep an eye on the Notre Dame defense as well. They played pretty well against the other dual-threat quarterbacks they’ve faced this year, and the speed in the back 7-8 is as good as it’s been for years. If they can frustrate Malik Cunningham into simply being a passer, they’ll get a couple key turnovers and put this one away and save the sweat.