College Football Best Bets: Three Favorite Picks for Week 4 of the 2022 SeasonSep 23, 2022, 5:23AM
After going 2-1 with our college football best bets last week, we're looking to turn in another profitable weekend with our Week 4 picks. We have another three plays for you to follow, so join us for the September 24 slate.
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Week 4 College Football Best Bets for Saturday, September 24, 2022
TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs - 12:00PM ET
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes left SMU to lead the Horned Frogs after last season, so you can count on this being a pretty emotional game. This is one where you can throw most trends out the window, as Dykes is mostly responsible for any recent Mustangs trends and SMU also happens to be coached by Rhett Lashlee, who cut his teeth under Dykes.
Home-field advantage and a rowdy student section will help SMU in this one, as everybody — including the Mustangs players — will be eager to try and show Dykes that he made a mistake in leaving. But in a meeting between two teams with great offenses, we trust the Horned Frogs to make more plays in the end. TCU quarterback Max Duggan is an experienced signal caller that happens to be coming off a game in which he threw for 390 yards with five touchdowns. Duggan is confident in what he can do and he also has some running ability, which will allow him to make plays when things break down.
TCU also happens to be a little more reliable on defense, making it hard not to want to back the Horned Frogs in this game. SMU will have a lot of energy in this one, but TCU is better on both sides of the ball and that should manifest itself over the course of a full game. It also doesn't hurt that Dykes knows everything Lashlee wants to do. He'll pass along everything he can to defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie to try and get him ready to stop the Mustangs offense.
BET: TCU -1.5 at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
North Texas Mean Green vs. Memphis Tigers - 3:30PM ET
North Texas is averaging 31.8 points per game this season and Memphis is averaging 34.7. These are two offenses that have had a lot of success so far and both are extremely explosive. And neither one of them plays good defense. With that in mind, it's just hard to see this game not being a very high-scoring one.
Even though the total in this game is set very high, we still think the Over is a really good play. Generally, the oddsmakers make a total this high in order to scare you out of playing the Over, but we're not going to fall for that trap. This is going to be a back-and-forth game in which these offenses take turns making big plays, and it should be a really fun one to watch.
It should be noted that North Texas' last two games have seen an average of 85.5 points per game scored, while Memphis has scored an average of 40.5 points per game over its last two games. There just isn't much you can say about this game that will make the Under look like the right play. Also, since Seth Littrell became the Mean Green's head coach, the Over is 10-3 when North Texas has allowed 475 or more total yards per game over the last three seasons.
Don't be surprised if this is a game in which Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan puts up some huge numbers.
BET: Over 70 in North Texas-Memphis at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies - 7:00PM ET
Texas A&M made a big change at quarterback before its game against the Miami Hurricanes, as the Aggies moved from Haynes King to Max Johnson. Johnson didn't light it up or anything, but he didn't make mistakes and he was poised in the pocket. That's something he showed all throughout his season as a starter for the LSU Tigers, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. And we expect him to continue to get better as he plays more.
This Arkansas defense isn't one that's particularly impressive, so it wouldn't be surprising if Texas A&M's offense wakes up here. The team has been waiting on a big performance from running back Devon Achane and this could be the week it happens. The Razorbacks struggled to get stops against Missouri State last week, and Texas A&M is a heck of a lot more talented than that team.
The Aggies also happen to have one of the best defenses in the entire nation. They have allowed just 8.7 points per game this season and only gave up nine against Miami last week. Arkansas is one of the best offensive teams in the country, but Jimbo Fisher's team should be able to do a decent job of limiting that group from making huge plays with regularity.
Texas A&M is 9-1 straight-up in the last 10 games between these teams, and this is essentially a pick'em game. On top of that, the Aggies are 12-9 SU and 13-8 against the spread when playing teams with winning records under Fisher. We'd just be very surprised if they can't get the job done in this game.
BET: Texas A&M -2 at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook