CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Wisconsin vs. Ohio State on September 24, 2022Sep 18, 2022, 10:52PM
The Wisconsin Badgers already have a bad loss on their resume, but they'll hope to make up for it with an upset win over the Ohio State Buckeyes at 7:30PM ET on Saturday, September 24. The problem for the Badgers is that this game will be played at Ohio Stadium, where the Buckeyes will have the support of an insane fanbase.
Can Paul Chryst's team find a way to keep this one close? You might want to keep reading our Wisconsin vs. Ohio State betting preview to find out.
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Wisconsin vs. Ohio State Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 88% chance Ohio State win on the money line
- 51% chance Wisconsin covers the +19 spread
- 55% Wisconsin vs. Ohio State goes Under 57 total points
For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Wisconsin vs. Ohio State data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State Analysis
Wisconsin's home loss to Washington State was downright embarrassing. The Badgers were 17-point favorites in that game and held the Cougars to 253 total yards, but bad turnovers and the inability to finish drives left the door open for the visitors. Washington State ended up taking advantage of the opportunity, stealing a win from a much better team on the road.
For as bad as that loss was, it's important not to overreact to that one performance. The Badgers outplayed the Cougars by a wide margin in that game, and they also bounced back with a 66-7 victory over the New Mexico State Aggies last week. Now, Wisconsin will look to go into Ohio Stadium and give Ohio State a run for its money. And while the Badgers likely won't have much of a chance to win this game outright, this spread is a bit disrespectful to a great program.
One thing we know Wisconsin does well is defend, as the Badgers had the fourth-best scoring defense in the nation last year and they're back in the top 10 in scoring defense this year. In the past, Wisconsin has lacked the athletes necessary to cover Ohio State and all of the team's weapons, but the Badgers have done a better job of recruiting in recent years. They have quite a few athletes on defense, with some being legitimate NFL prospects. We think defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will do a decent job of putting a plan together that allows Wisconsin to not get torched by Ryan Day's offense.
It's obviously unsettling betting against quarterback CJ Stroud, who might be the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. But Wisconsin has the running game required to keep Ohio State from getting in rhythm, and the Badgers are just getting far too many points here. This is still one of the best teams in the Big Ten, and quarterback Graham Mertz has taken a huge step forward this year. Teams are no longer able to completely sell out against the run against Wisconsin, which should allow the team to do a decent job of moving the ball here.
Between Mertz's improved ability to make tough throws and Braelon Allen's home-run hitting at running back, the Badgers are just a good bet to keep this thing close enough to cover as 17.5-point underdogs. Our DimersBOT gives Paul Chryst's group a good shot at doing so.
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While the total in this game might seem low for an Ohio State game, it's actually quite high for a Wisconsin game. And even though the Buckeyes are as explosive as they come offensively, it's the Badgers that are likely going to dictate play in this game. Wisconsin might not be successful every drive, but the team is going to try to run the ball and control the time of possession. That kills the clock and really helps the Under have a great shot at winning.
The Badgers also have the type of defense to give the Buckeyes more trouble than most teams do, so that should also help limit the amount of damage Ohio State can do in this one. That can't be ignored when trying to decide which way to bet this total.
The Under has also hit in each of the last three games that these two teams have played against one another, and it's 9-4 when the Badgers have played as underdogs under Chryst. It's also 8-2 in the 10 games that Ohio State has played as a favorite of 14.5 to 21 points under Day.
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State Best Bet
Under Chryst, the Badgers are 3-2 against the spread when playing as underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points and they're 8-5 ATS as underdogs, in general. This is just a team that really shouldn't be counted out, which is why we're keeping it simple and backing Wisconsin +17.5.
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