CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Arkansas vs. Texas A&M on September 24, 2022

The Arkansas Razorbacks are still undefeated after narrowly escaping with a win last week, but they'll have to be great in order to beat the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas at 7:00PM ET on Saturday, September 24. This rivalry is one that produces great games and we expect it to be another exciting one at Jerry World this weekend.  

Will the Aggies deal the Razorbacks their first loss of the season? You might want to keep reading our Arkansas vs. Texas A&M to find out. 

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Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

  • 60% chance Texas A&M win on the money line
  • 58% chance Texas A&M cover the -1.5 spread
  • 52% Arkansas vs. Texas A&M goes Over 48.5 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Arkansas vs. Texas A&M data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

 

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Analysis

The Spread

Texas A&M needed a win last week after its embarrassing 17-14 home defeat at the hands of Appalachian State. The Aggies beat Miami, 17-9, but many of the same problems still remain. The Texas A&M offensive line has allowed five sacks, which is 59th in FBS. The Aggies average 3.87 yards per carry as well. While that’s a stat that highlights the running backs, it is also indicative of the poor offensive line play. Texas A&M has good running backs at its disposal, but the offensive line has struggled to provide running lanes for Devon Achane.

Another position where Texas A&M has struggled is at quarterback. Haynes King started the first two games of the season against Sam Houston State and Appalachian State. In those two games, King threw for 461 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He also fumbled the ball twice. LSU transfer Max Johnson played against Miami and took care of the football. He threw for 163 yards and one touchdown against the Hurricanes. Johnson also brings more mobility to the table for Jimbo Fisher. The Texas A&M offense as a whole is a concern heading into this game.

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Arkansas had two solid wins in its opening two games. The Razorbacks beat both Cincinnati and SEC foe South Carolina at home. Arkansas did have trouble with Missouri State last week, but Sam Pittman’s team pulled away in the fourth quarter to win. The weakness on this team is in the secondary. Arkansas allows more passing yards per game than anybody in FBS. Missouri State quarterback Jason Shelley threw for 357 yards this past Saturday.

The spread for this game is at -2.5 in favor of Texas A&M. The Aggies are the more talented team. However, they’ve had trouble moving the football this season. Arkansas is vulnerable deep down the field, but Texas A&M isn’t built to expose that weakness. Because of that, we like Arkansas to cover the spread and even win outright.

 

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The Over/Under

This point total is low considering Arkansas has put up 37.7 points per game this season. However, this will be the best defense Arkansas will have faced up until this point in the season. The Razorbacks have gained just over 500 yards per game this season. They likely will not be anywhere close to that mark against Texas A&M, which has allowed 301.7 yards per game this season.

RELATED: Full betting previews for every CFB game

We still think this total is just a bit too low. Texas A&M will likely have more success on offense against Arkansas than it did in the last two games. There will be opportunities down the field for the deep ball, where we trust Johnson to do more damage than King would have. Overall, we like the Over quite a bit here. 

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Best Bet

Over 49 Points

This is a game that we aren't feeling overly confident about, but we'd go with Over 49 if we had to just pick one play. If Texas A&M takes care of the football and maximizes its possessions, the Over should hit. Arkansas' offense is just so explosive that it's just hard to see this not being something of a track meet. 

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BEST BETS: Our Best CFB Bets for Saturday

 
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