Betting Preview for the 2022 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix

This weekend marks the 92nd edition of the Italian Grand Prix (officially, the “Pirelli Gran Premio d’Italia”), run at the historic, 5,793 kilometer, Autodromo Nazionale Monza. Built in 1922, Monza Circuit is the third-oldest motor racing track in the world. The ovular circuit’s lengthy straights and banked corners never fail to produce high speed, full-throttle action, and bettors can expect a dynamic show all 53 laps.

Our Dimers.com F1 expert takes a look at the best bets for the 2022 Italian Grand Prix this weekend.

2022 Italian F1 Grand Prix Betting Preview

What’s at stake?

For Ferrari, everything. Monza is the Italian automaker’s de facto home track, and should be the perfect setting for Ferrari’s return to form, given their excellent straight-line speed. However, Ferrari’s recent struggles show no sign of letting up, which could open the door for a Mercedes team, which generally performs better on curvier raceways, to secure another second place points finish. I say second place, because first is all but reserved for Red Bull — but more on that to come.

F1 Italian Grand Prix Best Bets

Neither Ferrari finishes better than third: We’ve already touched on the reasons Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz should succeed at Monza—the home-track advantage, the straight-line speed — but bettors should not, under any circumstances, expect the double-podium Ferrari so desperately needs. The FIA’s new technical directives have crippled Ferrari since F1’s summer break, and it’s become increasingly clear the tweaks Ferrari made to pass the new flex test have devastated their performance. Look for Ferrari to be exposed at Monza, with neither Leclerc nor Sainz securing better than a third-place finish.

Top 5 showing from Lando Norris: Last year, McLaren shocked the world with a 1-2 finish at the IGP. Sure, it helped that Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton knocked each other out of the race, but McLaren’s outcome can’t be ignored. While Danny Riccardo has been horrific in 2022, his teammate Lando Norris has consistently outperformed a McLaren racecar that’s regressed from last season. That regression will probably prevent Norris from repeating 2021’s second-place showing, but the Brit’s mastery of the track plants him firmly in the "value bet" category, with a finish between third and fifth looking probable.

Verstappen wins...again: This one might seem a little fish-in-a-barrel, and, to some extent, it is. Verstappen, who has won four-straight races, will be driving the fastest car on the grid, on a track that seems custom built for Red Bull’s aerodynamic setup. However, Verstappen has never won the Italian Grand Prix, and betting on any driver to win a race for the first time entails a certain level of risk. With that said, the stars seem aligned for Verstappen to collect his first Italian Grand Prix victory, and unless the Dutchman crashes — not out of the question considering it happened last year — Verstappen will breeze to victory.

Formula 1 Italian GP Betting Odds 2022

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