Betting Guide for Game 3 of Warriors vs. Mavericks in the 2022 NBA Western Conference FinalsMay 21, 2022, 10:40PM
The 2022 NBA Western Conference Finals roll onto Dallas with the Golden State Warriors holding a 2-0 series lead and looking for more.
The Warriors were immense in the second half of Game 2, rallying from a deficit that blew out to as big as 19 points at one point, to reel in the Mavs in a crushing blow to Luka Doncic and his men. Golden State now have the chance to continue their NBA playoffs charge and get an near-unattainable 3-0 lead in Game 3.
Game 3: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, May 22 2022, 9PM
Why favorite Mavericks will cover the points spread
The Mavs (-2) have been here before, as they were down 0-2 last round vs. Phoenix. In Game 3, they beat the favored Suns using the same blueprint that led them to a 29-12 home record in this season — forcing turnovers, and protecting the ball. The Mavs averaged 17 takeaways, while only turning the ball over 8 times in the regular season. On the other side, the Warriors are only 2-3 on the road during the playoffs, where they are scoring 7 fewer points, shooting 6% worse from three, and turning the ball over almost 18 times a game.
Oh, and they lost both games at Dallas during the regular season.
Why underdog Warriors will cover the points spread
The Warriors (+2) have sent the Mavs a lot of different looks on defense. Whether it’s blitzes, drop coverages, or even a box-and-1 zone, the Warriors have forced the Mavs to make adjustments play by play. Additionally, the Warriors ability to adjust on defense in the second half this series has been impressive. Prior to this series, Dallas had an offensive rating of 114.3 in the second half, but so far this series, they have posted a rating of just 89.7. Even if this game is close, expect the Warriors to know exactly how to defend Luka down the stretch.
Why Warriors vs. Mavs will go Over the 218.5 total points line
Game 2 totaled 243 points despite the Warriors shooting eleven fewer 3’s than their playoff average, both teams missing a combined 12 free throws, and the Mavs only scoring 13 points in the third quarter. Additionally, in Game 3s of these playoffs, Dallas has averaged 115 points, and Golden State has averaged 130.
Why Warriors vs. Mavs will stay Under the 218.5 total points line
As good as these offenses were in Game 2, these teams are here because of their defense. In the regular season, Dallas was No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed at 104.7, and Golden State was No. 3 at 105.5. At home in these playoffs, Dallas has allowed the least amount of points at 93.5, which is 6 points less than the next closest team. Additionally, in Game 2, the Mavs hit 8 more 3’s than their regular season average, and the Warriors field goal percentage was almost 10% higher. We are more likely to see a total closer to Game 1’s total of 199 than Game 2’s 243.
XFactor: Maxi Kleber, Dallas Forward
In the eight Dallas playoff wins this season, Kleber has a +9.1 plus/minus, which includes a +13.5 in the Phoenix series. So for this series, he has a -14, including a -20 in Game 2. Dallas’s lineup of Doncic, Brunson, Bullock, Finney-Smith, and Kleber has the 3rd highest point differential, 2nd highest points per 100 possessions, 2nd highest effective field goal percentage in all of the playoffs. Dallas needs Kleber to help space the floor and hit shots when Luka finds him open in the corner. His current 3 points per game on 22% shooting is a far cry from the nearly 10 points on 56% shooting he averaged vs. Phoenix.