Super Bowl Day is the biggest party of the year. It’s 60 minutes to define your legacy, place yourself within the NFL Hall of Fame or, potentially, grab your eighth Super Bowl ring if your name is Thomas Edward Patrick Brady.
Even if you’re not taking the field, you too can create a legacy as the premier NFL bettor of all your friends. If you want to get one over on your squad and win some money in Super Bowl week, keep those eyes peeled, Dimers has got you.
Ready to join a Sportsbook and start betting online? We’ve got you covered.
Alright, let’s get to it, without further ado here are the best Super Bowl betting strategies.
Super Bowl MVP Betting Strategy
Put your cash on the QB
It doesn’t matter if you have 14 catches, 110 yards receiving, 3 total TDs and a two-point conversion to haul your team to a Super Bowl — hello James White — the guy under centre will likely win the award.
Julian Edelman was the last non-QB to win the Super Bowl MVP just two years ago. However, of the last 11 MVPs, eight were quarterbacks. Edelman, Von Miller and Malcolm Smith — google him — were the exceptions.
Despite the inarguable quarterback bias spread throughout the NFL world, often they are the difference between a win and loss — we see you Nate Sudfeld.
Quite often when an underdog wins the Super Bowl its quarterback takes home the MVP, think Nick Foles, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Drew Brees and more recently the Bucs and Tom Brady. Admittedly, Miller and Smith are outliers, that too might be worth noting.
If you think the game will be close and could be decided by a dominant defender, give it serious consideration. Wide Receivers also present decent value and provide a good option beyond the QBs - take a look in Dimers’ NFL bet hub.
Bet the Super Bowl Underdog
Across the last 11 Super Bowls, dogs have won six Lombardi Trophies — excluding New England who were a Pick ‘Em in SB XLIX.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Nick Foles, the NY Giants and Eli Manning, the Broncos and Von Miller, the Bucs and Tom Brady... the list goes on.
Super Bowl Dogs Against The Spread
Notably, those who love NFL spread betting will find comfort in the knowledge that dogs hold their own. They’ve gone 6-5 in the last decade against the spread (ATS), which is better than you may think. So if you love this year’s dog, it’s time you took the plunge and signed up with one of our sportsbook partners to place the bet. Oh and before you do, here are the best odds for the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Favorites Against The Spread
Traditionally favored teams have mixed results when it comes to covering the Super Bowl spread. From 2011-2021 favorites have gone 4/11 — five if you count NE’s Pick ‘Em vs. Seattle — against the spread. The only teams to cover were Kansas City vs. San Francisco, New England vs. LA and Atlanta, and Green Bay way back in 2011.
Given the NFL’s best defense is more often than not involved in the Super Bowl — and the frequency of upsets — it may be wise to avoid betting the favorite ATS.
However, don’t let us stop you from looking at the best spread odds this Super Bowl week.
Super Bowl Trends: First TD Scorer
Typically the first touchdown is scored by a wide receiver. Although teams with a dominant run game may be cause for you to check out our list of the most likely players to score the first Touchdown.
- Rob Gronkowski (TE)
- Patrick Mahomes (QB)
- Sony Michel (RB)
- Alshon Jeffery (WR)
- Devonta Freeman (RB)
- Malik Jackson (DT)
As you can see recently there has been a mix of positions to score the first touchdown of a Super Bowl.
For further context, here’s the last 11 first touchdown scorers by position:
WR - 5
RB - 3
TE - 1
QB - 1
DT - 1
Value in Super Bowl Prop Bets
Prop bets are the most fun and widespread betting options available during Super Bowl week. You have a fortnight usually to scour sportsbooks for the best odds and welcome offers in the United States.
When doing so we mustn’t forget the public influences the pricing of odds heavily. Naturally, most people want a great Super Bowl, they want pick-sixes, touchdowns galore and teams moving up and down the field like Nick Foles and Tom Brady in Super Bowl LI. As New England and LA showed us, that won’t always happen.
With this in mind, consider how realistic some of the over/under bets are, there could be real value if you think a defense will shut down an offense quicker than Marshawn Lynch does reporters.