It's the last day of the NBA regular season and what a big day it is! With every team playing over the course of the day, it's only right that we supersize this mf'er and give you even more betting picks to finish this season off.
It's Sunday May 16, and, as always, we've simulated all of tonight's games 10,000 times each determining where the value lies for bettors across the United States.
With NBA betting picks, probabilities, odds and predicted scores featured each and every day, check out our top plays for tonight's games.
Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on in every game via our NBA Bet Hub where we deliver you predictions and suggested bets, based on the edge we've identified against the sportsbooks' odds.
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Here is what the data is telling us for today's NBA games ⏬
BET: 🔥 Boston Celtics at the spread with PointsBet (-110)
📈 52.2% probability
Boston have obviously had their struggles throughout the course of this season - underachieving based off of their potential quite significantly - but no matter who they're coming up against, when you offer us the Celtics with a huge points spread advantage and Jayson Tatum is in the squad, you know we're going to take it.
The Knicks are good, but our data projections thinks the spread is just far too high for this one.
Editor's note: Since the time of publication, both Jayson Tatum and Evan Fournier have been listed as OUT for the Celtics. The Dimers data projections have been updated to reflect this and still list Boston ATS as the best play in this matchup.
BET: 🔥 Houston Rockets at the spread with Unibet (-110)
📈 56.2% probability
Today is going to throw up some shocks, there is no question about that. The question is whether we will be able to hit on them. Our data projects the Rockets at the spread is one of the best plays of the day with a 56.2% probability and a 6.2% edge on the sportsbook's odds. Houston have now completely locked up the worst record in the league, regardless of what happens in this game, or any other game, so we might see a more competitive outfit against a team who will be in preservation mode before playoffs. Don't forget, this is the same Rockets team that beat the Clippers only a few days ago.
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BET: 🔥 Denver Nuggets at the spread with BetMGM (-110)
📈 53.2% probability
At first glance, seeing the Nuggets with a super high points spread may look a little weird, as with the moneyline odds of +340, but it would appear as though the 'books believe that the motivation for Portland to win (a win would have them avoid the play-in tournament) is worthy of 8-point favoritism (at the time of publishing).
We'll take Denver here, because the Nuggets have motivation to do well, also. We're not sleeping on them.
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BET: 🔥 Total points OVER 223.5 (-115) with William Hill Sportsbook
📈 2.5% edge on the sportsbook's odds
If the Lakers lose tonight, they're not eliminated from the season, but it sure feels like the death knell if LA get mixed up in the play-in tournament which is what will happen if they drop this game against the Pelicans.
The tension is sure to be high in a game that will have that playoff feel. We're taking on the Over play in this one with both teams known for scoring at a high clip. The Lakers defense is famous, but in the most recent game between these two back on March 23, New Orleans were still able to pile on 128 points on their own.
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BET: 🔥 Total points OVER 224.5 with DraftKings Sportsbook (-111)
📈 51.2% probability
Two offensive juggernauts meet up to close the season out and we're not expecting anything other than a lot of points. The Bucks are ranked No. 1 for points scored per game this season with 120.2. Lately, games featuring Milwaukee have gone up a notch on the points totals with games averaging a combined 253.5 points over their last five.
MORE: Bucks @ Bulls predictions
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🔥 Celtics ATS
🔥 Rockets ATS
🔥 Nuggets ATS
🔥 Lakers/Pelicans o223.5 points
🔥 Bucks/Bulls o224.5 points
💰 Parlay with UniBet (+2442)
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