The golden run continues! After another clean sweep of our MLB plays yesterday, we are now 11-1 since Sunday. With an 8-game slate ahead on Thursday, we are feeling good and ready to keep this thing going.
It's Thursday April 22, and, as always, we've simulated all of tonight's games 10,000 times each determining where the value lies for baseball bettors across the United States.
With MLB betting picks, probabilities, odds and predicted scores featured each and every day, check out our top plays for tonight's games.
Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on in every game via our MLB Bet Hub where we deliver you predictions and suggested bets, based on the edge we've identified against the sportsbooks' odds.
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Here is what the data is telling us for today's MLB games ⏬
BET: 🔥 Total runs OVER 8.5 with FanDuel Sportsbook (-110)
📈 52.2% probability
The run totals have been good to us this week and we're sticking with what works, taking the Over when Pittsburgh meets Detroit.
Both teams have extremely leaky run defenses, conceding more than 5 runs per game each. Today's probable pitchers only add to the confidence of this pick, with Mitch Keller for the Pirates giving up an astonishing 12 hits per nine inning to go with an ERA of 8.74. Overrrrrrr.
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BET: 🔥 Total runs OVER 9 (+100) with William Hill Sportsbook
📈 2.7% edge on the sportsbook's odds
We spoke about leaky run defenses in the pick above, but when it comes to the poorest defense, that honor goes to the Angels. They're giving up 5.22 runs per nine innings at the moment, and are coming up against an Astros team who had a run of low scoring games and are looking to break out. We're in Houston, so it's only fitting that we get ready for blast off.
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BET: 🔥 San Diego Padres at the run line with BetMGM (-133)
📈 59.3% probability
Baseball is a funny sport, and sometimes funny things happen. Our data projections likes the out-of-form Padres to spring back to life as they match up against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Look for the Padres to keep things tight here and TRUST DIMERSBOT!
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🔥 Pirates/Tigers o8.5 runs
🔥 Angels/Astros o9 runs
🔥 Padres +1.5
💰 Parlay @ FanDuel Sportsbook (+504)
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