Best Bets for UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 on Saturday, July 30

On Saturday, July 30, MMA (mixed martial arts) fans around the world will be tuned into UFC 277, which is headlined by Julianna Pena defending her Bantamweight title against Amanda Nunes. Pena took this title from Nunes, who is widely regarded as one of the best female fighters in the history of the sport, back at UFC 269. That match ended with Pena defeating Nunes via rear-naked choke in the second round, and it absolutely stunned those in attendance and watching at home.

While the main event in this one should be extremely fun to watch, it’s a loaded card and we’re locking in on another pair of fights. Continue reading for our UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 best bets.

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Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich

While Lewis is more established than his opponent in the Heavyweight division, the 37-year-old enters this match as the underdog. That seems like it could be a little bit of gamesmanship from the oddsmakers, who know that the public will jump on Lewis at plus-money. That makes Pavlovich look like the sharper side in this fight, and that’s part of the reason we’re rolling with him as one of our best bets of the night.

It would, however, be wiser to take Pavlovich to win by way of knockout, as the odds are more favorable on him to finish Lewis than to just win this thing overall. While it’s sometimes nice to have the comfort of knowing that you can win via decision, you really shouldn’t need that in this fight. The odds on this one not to go the distance are currently sitting at -650, which just shows you how likely it is that one of these two fighters will knock the other out.

Lewis is one of the biggest swingers in all of UFC, as his 13 knockouts are the most in the history of the promotion. He’ll be trying to throw haymakers in this one, but Pavlovich will be doing the same. Each of the Russian’s last three fights have ended in the first round, and only three of his 16 career fights (not all of them have been in the same promotion) have made it into a second round. Pavlovich also happens to have 12 first-round knockouts in his career, so these two will be on the same page when it comes to ending this fight. The difference is that Pavlovich is seven years younger, so he should look a bit spryer in the octagon on Saturday. Pavlovich also has a much longer reach, which will allow him to sit back and throw bombs at Lewis from further away.  

Best Bet: Pavlovich By KO/TKO, DQ or Submission (-110)

Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France

Due to the injury to Deiveson Figueiredo, Moreno and Kara-France will have the chance to fight for the interim Flyweight title. Much like the first fight we wrote up in this piece, the oddsmakers are clearly trying to point bettors in a certain direction in this fight. Despite these two fighters being neck and neck in the rankings — and having gone to a decision when they fought in 2019 — Vegas is hanging Moreno out there as a -225 favorite in this one. That means that casual bettors will have a chance to take Kara-France, a fighter they view as Moreno’s equal, at +185. Once again, this leads us to believe that Moreno is the sharp play, and we’ll now look to back him in a way that gets us some favorable odds.

When looking for the best way to bet Moreno, it’s hard not to jump at him to submit Kara-France here. Kara-France defended takedowns rather well in his win over Askar Askarov in his last fight, and he was also solid enough when he ultimately ended up on his back. But Moreno is going to be a whole different beast for Kara-France, as “The Assassin Baby” is just going to have a massive advantage on the ground in this one. Moreno has won 11 of his 19 MMA fights by submission, and it just wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up winning this one with a rear-naked choke at some point.

Kara-France will likely want to stay on his feet in this one, as he’ll view himself as the better striker in this fight. But Moreno can hold his own on his feet and tire the New Zealand native out, which will allow him to shoot for takedowns and ultimately win it his way later on.

If you’re comfortable taking Moreno to win with the juice, go for it. But we think you might be better off playing it small and going for the enticing odds.

Best Bet: Moreno By Submission – half-unit play (+350)

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