...
...
Read Article
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Pablo Carreno Busta prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Davidovich Fokina vs Carreno Busta predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pablo Carreno Busta are scheduled to meet in the round of 64 of the ATP Madrid Open event on Saturday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Alejandro Davidovich Fokina as the most likely winner of the Davidovich Fokina vs. Carreno Busta match.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Davidovich Fokina vs. Carreno Busta prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Davidovich Fokina-Carreno Busta men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Davidovich Fokina a 62% chance of winning against Carreno Busta at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Davidovich Fokina has a 61% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Carreno Busta (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Pablo Carreno Busta odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Davidovich Fokina | Carreno Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -200 | +180 |
| First Set | -189 | +150 |
| Game Spread | -3.5 (-106) | +3.5 (-126) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-108) | u22.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Davidovich Fokina vs. Carreno Busta picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carreno Busta | +180 |
| First Set | Carreno Busta | -108 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Davidovich Fokina vs. Carreno Busta updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pablo Carreno Busta is scheduled to start on Saturday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure