ALCS Game One: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: Predictions, picks and bets


October 11, 2020 7:00 AM

A few weeks ago if you said to us that the Tampa Bay Rays would have eliminated the New York Yankees to advance to the American League Championship Series against the wildcard-winning Houston Astros who were 29-31 after the end of the regular season, chances are we probably would have put a straitjacket on you, transported you to a medical facility and told the nurse on shift that you are never to be let out of your padded cell. 

But that’s where we find ourselves. The New York Yankees who were +350 to win it all just a few days ago, were knocked out in five by the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday. The Rays, now +210 to win the World Series, come up against a Houston Astros team who are appearing in their fourth consecutive ALCS.

The books don’t like the Astros this year, though, who have done well to even get this far after an off-season shrouded in controversy and a fairly tame regular-season record. Tampa Bay will go into this series as hot favorites, but as we know in sports, anything can happen.

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Here are our top plays for a huge Game 1:


Dimers' Suggested Plays
🔥 BEST: Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-150*)
💵 Moneyline: Astros (+135*)
🚀 Over/Under: u8.5 runs (-108*)
🚨 Best online sportsbooks here


Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-150*) has a 63% probability

Despite the sportsbooks’ love of the Rays, we’ve gone the other way on this one for an experienced playoff team. Houston are 8-0 in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. You can’t ignore a statistic like that. Never underestimate the Astros.‍




💵 Moneyline
Astros H2H (+135*) has a 4.6% edge on the sportsbooks

Want some more interesting stats? OK. Well, Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez is 4-0 in his last four starts. He’s on a HOT streak and so are Houston, winning five out of their last six. The sportsbooks have this way too overpriced in favor of the Rays – there is money to be made on Houston straight up for a nice profit.

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🚀 Over/Under
u8.5 runs (-108*) has a 52% probability

As with any pro sports league, when it gets to the pointy end of the season, nerves start to tense up and the scores generally stay low. The under is always the smart play to make first up in the series as teams keep the powder dry and try to figure each other out. We wish the total was a little higher than 8.5, but we’ll take it on.‍

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⚾️ Dimers' take-out

The World Series appears to be the Dodgers’ to lose now, but one of these teams will advance in just a few short days. We think the sportsbooks have become too enamored with the Rays heroics over the Yankees. Don’t count the Astros out. We've got a list of the biggest, best and most trusted online sportsbooks in your area right here.


*odds are correct at time of publishing