Stars v Avalanche: Predictions, picks and bets

By

August 22, 2020 9:10 PM

It’s time for the Western Conference semi-finals in the NHL as the Dallas Stars meet the Colorado Avalanche.

Colorado breezed through their first-round match up winning against Arizona in five while Dallas were 3-0 down in Game 6 of their series against the Calgary Flames before storming back to win 7-3 to avoid a Game 7.

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Here are our best plays for this huge match up


Dimers' Suggested Plays
🔥BEST: Over 5.5 goals (+110*)
💵Moneyline: Stars (+145*)
🏒Puck line: Stars +1.5 (-186*)


BEST
Over 5.5 goals (+110) has a 3.8% edge on the sportsbooks

Our predictive model is anticipating it to rain goals in the series opener. The past three games for Colorado have yielded six goals or more while Dallas proved they were able to turn it on in Game 6 against Calgary by piling on seven unanswered goals. Take the overs here.
 

Moneyline
Stars (+145*) has a 1.1% edge on the sportsbooks

We are expecting a close game but think the Stars can edge out the Avalanche in this one to get off to a 1-0 lead in the series.

 

Puck Line
Stars +1.5 (-186*) has a 64% probability

It’s interesting to see how the Stars are priced as dogs at the moneyline yet at the puck line they are -186. This shows the sportsbook knows there might be an upset for the taking tonight. Take the puck line just for a little extra insurance.

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Dimers' take-out

Colorado will be favored to take this series out, but our model suggests they won’t have it all their own way. Count on Dallas to keep things tight.

 

*odds are correct at time of publishing