3M Open Best Bets and Head-to-Head Matchups Parlay

Updated: Dec 29, 2023, 6:06 AM ET | First published: Jul 26, 2023, 1:51 PM ET

Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer

3M Open Best Bets and Head-to-Head Matchups Parlay

The regular season is winding down on the PGA TOUR after a remarkable Open Championship that saw Brian Harman secure his first major victory with a decisive victory over a loaded field. There are only two events left before the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs get underway. With that in mind, we have again identified our best outright winners and used our powerful head-to-head matchups tool to build a matchups parlay at odds of +2956. This golf parlay has been built thanks to our predictive analytics model and the odds on offer at DraftKings Sportsbook.

DimersBOT's favorites to win the 3M Open this week are Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im and Tony Finau.

GOLF OFFER: Get a +1000 odds boost to any player's odds for this week's 3M Open with DraftKings Sportsbook

Who will win the 2023 3M Open?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's 3M Open, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times:

	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Hideki Matsuyama	7.2%	22.2%	34.1%
Sungjae Im	5.0%	17.5%	28.8%
Tony Finau	4.7%	17.2%	28.6%
Emiliano Grillo	4.1%	14.6%	24.9%
Cameron Young	3.7%	14.5%	24.7%

3M Open Betting Preview

A lengthy par 71 that plays to 7,431 yards, TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota will play host to the 3M Open with defending champ Tony Finau atop the board tied as a betting favorite at +1600.

Of course, this week sees a slimmed-down field compared to the elevated events and major tournaments, thus opening the way for some lesser-known names to make a run throughout the weekend.

MORE: Dimers Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 3M Open Championship

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)

Matsuyama gets the highest probability from our model and gives us about a 2% edge in his odds, which should be closer to +1200 per our model's predictions. It feels a little like Matsuyama peaked earlier this season when he placed 5th at THE PLAYERS as he hasn't mustered a Top-10 finish since then. He's been consistently decent, notching five Top-20s and only missing the cut once in nine events since.

Matsuyama holds the sixth-highest World Ranking out of the golfers competing in this event. Additionally, he ranks 20th in Strokes Gained overall and 15th in Approach, which will prove crucial to separate himself from the other contenders in this field.

Eric Cole (+5000)

We love our longshots with value at Dimers, and Eric Cole fits that bill perfectly. Cole gets a 3% probability from our model to win outright at odds of +5000, which suggest less than a 2% chance. While that's not a major discrepancy in probability, our model implies odds of just +3000, showing a significant edge in the odds themselves.

Cole has played a ton of events this year, and while he has six Missed Cuts on the calendar, he hasn't had one in his past six events, and just one if you go back to mid-May. He's displayed plenty of upside this year as well, with a T-5, T-6 and a 2nd-place finish after losing in a playoff back at the Honda Classic in February.

3M Matchups Parlay for 2023

Our parlay for the 2023 3M Open has landed, with five legs totaling odds of +2956 with DraftKings. We also recommend placing a round robin bet on this, giving you a nice payout if only three or four of the legs end up winning.

Leg 1: Hideki Matsuyama (+100)

The first leg of our golf parlay for this week is for Hideki Matsuyama to outperform Sungjae Im, our top two most-likely tournament winners.

Matsuyama is our best bet to win the 3M Open this week, so it only makes sense that we'd also back him to win his head-to-head matchup against Im.

Our model gives Matsuyama a 51.1% chance of beating Im this week, with a 4.6% probability of a tie.

Leg 2: Tony Finau (-110)

Next up is the reigning champ of this event, Tony Finau, to beat out Cameron Young.

Finau has a hit major rough patch, with three missed cuts in his last five events, including back-to-back. What better place to get back into form than a course you finished first at just a year ago?

With a probability of 50.4%, his fair odds to win this matchup are right in line with our projections. Young gets a 44.8% chance with a 4.8% probability of a tie.

Leg 3: Sepp Straka (+100)

Another plus-money opportunity, we're backing Sepp Straka to edge out Emiliano Grillo.

Straka is in excellent form over the past few weeks, securing a victory at the John Deere Classic, before finishing T2 with a mid-tourney push at the Open Championship last week. He's displayed as much upside as anyone this year.

Though Grillo gets a slightly higher percentage to win than Straka, our model favors Sepp in any other head-to-head matchup for placement. DimersBOT projects Straka as a 47.4% chance of emerging victorious in this duel.

MORE: Build your own 3M Open parlay with our PGA head-to-head predictor tool now

Leg 4: Eric Cole (+105)

Let's grab another plus-money advantage and take our other best bet to edge out his competition.

Eric Cole gets a 51% probability from our model to beat J.J. Spaun in their head-to-head matchup, giving us about a 3% edge in the odds.

Spaun gets a 43.7% chance to win this matchup and while he's edged out Cole several times this year, we're happy to take the plus-money odds for one of our best outright winner picks of the whole tournament.

Leg 5: Justin Thomas (-110)

For our final leg, we're taking Justin Thomas to beat the young Swede, Ludvig Aberg.

Okay, Thomas is not in great form. He's to four missed cuts in his last six events. But, with him currently sitting five spots outside the FedEx Cup Playoffs line, he'll need to turn in a serious performance this weekend.

In their five shared events this year, JT has beaten Aberg in all but one, coinciding with a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. DimersBOT gives Thomas a substantial edge here with a 57.3% chance to win H2H, vs. Aberg's 36.9% chance. Additionally, we're getting a 5% edge in the odds with his price of -110.

3M Open 2023 Matchups Parlay

Picks	Odds (+2956)
Hideki Matsuyama to beat Sungjae Im	+100
Tony Finau to beat Cameron Young	-105
Sepp Straka to beat Emiliano Grillo	+100
Eric Cole to beat J.J. Spaun	+105
Justin Thomas to beat Ludvig Aberg	-110

Want more PGA golf predictions like this?

So, you liked our 3M Open parlay? Awesome. Did you know our Golf Betting News section has a comprehensive betting preview for every PGA tournament as soon as the sportsbooks put out their odds?

That's right, our predictive analytics model then compares those odds (aka Vegas odds) against its own probabilities to find edges in the markets. This allows us to write the most reliable golf betting previews and beat the public and the sportsbooks to the punch.

Written by

Dave Garofolo

Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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