NFL 2020 Playoffs Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington: Predictions, picks and bets

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January 7, 2021 11:45 AM

 
NFL Playoffs predictions from 10,000 simulations
 

The farcical NFC East gave us plenty to laugh (and cry) about this year, but the division champion Washington Football Team have their chance to try and restore some respectability for the worst division in the league when they take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Wild Card Playoff action.

Washington, who finished a crazy 7-9 on the regular season, will be hoping that they're not there to just make up the numbers against a Bucs team who have also sprung a few surprises themselves with a 42-year-old Brady at the helm of the offense this year.

Our NFL Bet Hub predictions can't see anything other than Tampa Bay moving on to Week 2 and a date with Aaron Rodgers, but that doesn't mean that there isn't some real betting value to be had on this one. 

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💪 Spread

Both teams were 9-7 ATS (at the spread) over the course of the season, so there are no form lines to see how this one will play out from that perspective. The question here, though, is: have the sportsbooks shown too much disrespect to Washington by starting the Bucs as favorites by more than a TD? Our predictive analysis anticipates that this will be closer than books realize.

 

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🚀 Over/Under

It's quite a low total here for a team in the Buccaneers who are ranked as the third-best offense in the league for points scored at 30.8 per game through the regular season. By contrast, Washington is 25th in the league and rank 30th for total yards gained per game, but we still believe there will be enough firepower coming from the Bucs to get this one over the tiny total where one really good scoring quarter could all but seal the bet.

 

💵 Moneyline

Our predictive analysis says that Tampa Bay will prevail, but if you're a strategic bettor, Washington at the moneyline represents some significant value for a small play at long odds. 

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🏈 Dimers' take-out

Tom Brady has spent the last several years being told he's washed, but a win this weekend will set up a showdown with the presumptive league MVP which could go down as an all-time classic in Week 2. Or are we getting ahead of ourselves? We'll find out.

By the way, don't sleep on the prop play markets here either. We've got Washginton's Antonio Gibson as the best chance to get over for a TD in this one. Get more anytime touchdown probabilities for Bucs @ Washington.

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