Best Betting Strategies for the NFL Playoffs

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January 6, 2021 2:46 AM

The 2020 NFL playoffs will be like nothing we have ever seen before. With no - or limited - crowds, there will be a total of 14 teams in the NFL playoffs for the first time in 2020-21, up from 12 in previous seasons.

This means more football, more chances to bet and - of course - more chances to win during the NFL postseason. If your team is in the NFL playoffs, congrats! If not, let's make some money anyway.

There will be 13 games in the 2020-21 playoffs over four rounds. We start with Wild Card Weekend, followed by the Divisional Round, Conference Sunday, and finally, Super Bowl LV, on February 7, 2021 in Tampa, Florida.

 

Home-field advantage?

 

Playing postseason football in your own building is really important to organizations. With that said, it’s not impossible for teams to grab a playoff win on the road. 

If a team is a road favorite, you’re likely in luck! From 2002-2019, road teams favored by 3+ points have gone 11-5 in the playoffs. That’s an astonishing 69% win rate!

This season, with COVID-19 affecting crowds, home-field importance has shrunk. More than ever, teams have been winning on the road. 

 

Consider momentum

 

Momentum is one of the most important factors during NFL playoffs, sometimes it can lead to a Super Bowl title - hello New York Giants fans - or a big profit for you! 

Let’s look at some of the top performers from the 2019 NFL playoffs for context:

Tennessee Titans

  • Won five of the last seven regular season games
  • Playoffs: Beat the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens before their AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs

 

San Francisco 49ers

  • Won five of the last seven regular season games.
  • Playoffs: Beat the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers before their Super Bowl loss to Patrick Mahomes and co. 

 

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Won the last five regular season games.
  • Playoffs: Beat Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers on way to Super Bowl win.
 

Beware the underdog

 

NFL playoff betting has its pros and cons. For one, value can be harder to come by given the lesser volume of games. However, playoff time means recreational bettors are more prevalent. Often they will bet on the favored team, meaning greater value generally lies with the underdog. 

If you believe the underdog has a fighting chance, you might be wise to throw some money down on the playoff dog.

Underdogs in recent playoff history:

  • 2019: Won three of the four NFL Wild Card games
  • 2018: Won three of four Wild Card games
  • 2017: Won two of four Wild Card games
 

Postseason bankroll

 

To ensure responsible gambling it might be wise to set yourself a playoff betting limit. This will help you stay on top of your finances and keep you accountable. Most importantly, betting on the National Football League should be fun!

Here at Dimers we want you to enjoy football betting and the excitement of the NFL playoffs.

 

Previous matchups 

 

This should be the first place you look! Yes, NFL playoffs are decided by just 60 minutes on the gridiron. But that’s not to say there aren’t telltale signs which could ensure more money in your pocket. 

Some teams match up well against their opponent and have strengths which further exploit their weaknesses.

For further research — or if a team hasn’t played its playoff opponent — you could analyze how a team has performed against opponents with similar characteristics to the one awaiting them in the playoffs.  

 

Shop the spread

 

Obviously sportsbooks don’t exist for you to make money. Your loss is their win, so why have blind loyalty to just one book?

If you’re confident a team will cover a certain number against the spread, make sure you get it. Just because one book has the Green Bay Packers at +3.5 doesn’t mean there isn’t another offering +4.5.

Can’t be bothered scrolling through online betting sites? We’ve got you. In Dimers’ NFL Bet Hub you’ll find the best spread, moneyline and total odds available for pro football in the United States. 

We’re not in any way aligned to a sportsbook, often you’ll see we have a different sportsbook for the spread, moneyline and total. Sometimes the spread for a game has two different books! In short, we do the shopping for you!

We have no loyalty to one company, we’re simply here to help you find the best odds and bets for every NFL playoff game.

 

Want to go further?

 

If futures bets are your thing, it might pay to assess possible matchups — and recent history between the two — to bet on whether teams will make it to, and past, the Divisional and Championship rounds. There are numerous options through sportsbooks to bet on futures markets.

Example: 

  • When a team will be eliminated from the playoffs
  • How far a team will go 
  • Super Bowl MVP 
  • Super Bowl finalists 
  • Super Bowl winners

 

If you’re confident a team will make it further than advertized, be one and done, or cause the reigning champs - Kansas City - trouble, then this could be for you.

Future bets require foresight and patience but they usually pay off more handsomely than any betting type. 

 

Make the most of live betting

 

Live NFL betting exposes you to many options usually unavailable to the average bettor. The typical wagering options are available during NFL playoff games, but there are added offerings too.

Example

  • Next TD scorer 
  • Race to “X” Points 
  • Total TDs 
  • 1st Quarter points
  • Drive Result 
  • Play Result

 

With more options available to bettors, there is greater opportunity for you to find real value, catch online sportsbooks napping and capitalise on juicy odds. For a centralized place to find the latest percentages for anytime and next TD scorers, alongside best odds for live betting check out Dimers’ Live Now hub.

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