2023 Canadian Formula 1 Grand Prix: Betting Preview

Formula 1 returns this weekend for one of the most dynamic, highly anticipated races of the season, the Canadian Grand Prix. Dimers.com F1 expert Mac Douglass takes a look at the best bets for this weekend's action.
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2023 Canadian F1 Grand Prix Betting Preview
When?
Qualifier: Saturday, May 6th, 4:00 pm E.T.
Race: Sunday, May 7th, 3:30 pm E.T.
Where? Canadian International Autodrome—Canadian, Florida
Run on the 4.36 km Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal, the Canadian GP has a well-earned reputation for last-second overtakes and wild crashes, and it’s no wonder, given the track’s generous array of slow corners and lengthy straights. Unlike F1’s last stop in Barcelona, Montreal is a low downforce, rear-limited circuit, which would typically favor the setups of Red Bull and Aston Martin, as opposed to Mercedes, even after Lewis Hamilton and George Russell’s double podium in Spain represented the German automaker’s best showing of 2023. Toss in a theoretically well-suited Ferrari racecar driven by a pair of drivers—Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz—in desperate need of good showings, and this weekend’s Canadian Grand Prix is poised to deliver everything F1 fans could hope for.
What’s at stake?
Though there projects to be little drama in the battle for first—Max Verstappen’s dominant Red Bull, perfectly suited to Montreal, should run away with the victory—virtually every other slot on the grid is up for grabs. Aston Martin in particular will be eying a strong showing following Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll’s dismal outings in Barcelona, not to mention that AM will be rolling out their most substantial upgrade package of 2023 at the Canadian GP. While Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has acknowledged a likely regression, his Merc favoring front-limited circuits, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell will nonetheless be eager to demonstrate that Spain’s stellar results are a sign of things to come, as opposed to a false dawn, as we saw when the Mercedes performed well in Barcelona in 2022.
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Canadian Grand Prix Best Bets
As stated, there’s all sorts of cause for optimism surrounding Aston Martin, and a pair of top six finishes looks like great value at +162. Barring a DNF, Alonso is all but guaranteed to contend for a podium. Lance Stroll is a larger question mark; however, not only will the Canadian driver be racing an upgraded racecar in front of a home crowd, Stroll’s finished top six in three of the five races he’s completed this season, and looked in fine form securing his first inner-team victory over Alonso in Spain.
Aston Martin Double Top 6 Finish (+162 with Bet365)
Other than street circuits, on which Max Verstappen has faced solid competition from teammate Sergio Perez, the back-to-back Drivers’ Cup Champion has been utterly dominant in 2023, his last two outings a 24-second victory in Spain, and a 27-second victory in Monaco. Look for more of the same from Verstappen in Montreal, hence the appeal of a 10+ second margin of victory wager at -138.
Winning Margin Over 10 Seconds (-138 with Bet365)
There’s a lot to like about a points finish from Alfa Romeo’s Valtteri Bottas at +400. For one thing, Bottas loves the track, owning the record for fastest lap ever recorded in Montreal back in his days at Mercedes. For another, Montreal and Bahrain are inherently similar circuits, and the Finnish driver’s best result of the season came in Bahrain with an eighth place finish. The likelihood of rain this weekend is another reason to suspect a few unlikely point scorers. So, if you’re looking for a reach at great odds, Bottas is your man. Clearly, this is the biggest reach on the list, and conservative bettors will want to steer clear, but who doesn't love a little plus money value?
