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2023 Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix: Betting Preview
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Formula 1 heads down under this weekend for the F1 Australian Grand Prix, run at Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne. A temporary track that passes most of the year as a network of tranquil, beach-adjacent roads in the lovely Albert Park, the circuit is fairly rough by Formula 1 standards, particularly during Thursday and Friday’s practice sessions, before rubbering has broken in the pavement for the big event. Though the 2023 Australian GP will mark the first time in years in which Aussie Daniel Riccardo will not take the grid (unless he’s called into action by the unexpected absence of Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez), the locals will nonetheless have a hometown here to cheer for. Oscar Piastri of McLaren, who was born and raised in Melbourne, will make his Australian Grand Prix debut this Sunday.
Dimers.com F1 expert Mac Douglass takes a look at the best bets for the 2023 Australian Grand Prix.
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2023 Australian F1 Grand Prix Betting Preview
When?
Practice: Thursday, March 30th, 9:00 pm E.T.
Qualifier: Saturday, April 1st, 1:00 am E.T.
Race: Sunday, April 2nd, 12:00 am E.T.
Where?
Albert Park Circuit—Melbourne, Australia
What’s at stake?
Just two races into the 2023 Formula 1 season, Red Bull already looks to have a stranglehold on the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Cups, and there’s no reason to suspect Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez will face meaningful competition (besides one another) at Albert Park. The upshot is, all sorts of question marks remain regarding the balance of power just about everywhere else on the grid.
Ferrari, which entered 2023 as the odds-on favorite to secure second place in the Constructors’ Cup, if not challenge Red Bull for first, have gotten off to a disastrous start, with shockingly poor race pace in Saudi Arabia combining with a Charles Leclerc DNF in Bahrain to land the Italian automaker a fourth-place standing entering race three, and virtually no cause for optimism given the constant rumors of chaos behind the scenes. Though Aston Martin, and Fernando Alonso in particular, have been the talk of F1 thus far, they’re nonetheless knotted at 38 points apiece with an underperforming Mercedes team, and if Lewis Hamilton and George Russell can keep their heads above water for the next month, Toto Wolff has pledged an almost fully-designed racecar by the sixth of seventh race of the season.
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Australian Grand Prix Best Bets
Both Mercedes finish top 6. Last week Mercedes secured a double top-5 finish, though only narrowly, with Geroge Russell placing fourth, Lewis Hamilton placing fifth, and both aided significantly by a DNF from Aston Martin’s Lance Stroll and an uncharacteristically sluggish pair of Ferraris. While it would seem Mercedes could be in for a regression in Melbourne, a critical caveat is that Albert Park features a whopping four DRS zones, which should play into Mercedes’ hands and hamper Aston Martin, whose racecar is at its best navigating tight corners. Look for both Mercs to finish top-6 again, outscoring AM and breaking the current deadlock for second place in the Constructors’ Cup standings.
Both Mercedes Cars to Finish in the Top 6 (-139 with Bet365)
Double points finish for McLaren. Despite Ferrari’s horrific start to 2023, McLaren has somehow secured the mantle of most disappointing team on the grid. They currently sit dead last in the standings, with a genuinely embarrassing level of ineptitude on display across the season’s first two races. But there’s hope! McLaren announced major changes last week, firing Technical Director James Key, and confirming plans to debut a cutting edge wind tunnel and simulator later this season. More relevantly, Lando Norris is a points threat any time he suits up, and Oscar Piastri, who drove well in Saudi Arabia despite his 15th-place finish, will be extraordinarily motivated to put on a show at his inaugural hometown grand prix. Look for a return to form from a McLaren team that was expected to compete for the occasional podium in 2023.
Both McLaren Cars Points Finish (+700 with Bet365)
Leclerc on the podium. Though Albert Park’s four DRS zones should work more to Mercedes’ benefit than Aston Martin’s, the podium-contender likely to benefit most of all is Ferrari, whose drag reduction due to DRS at Jeddah was fourth best among all teams, trailing only Red Bull, Haas, and Williams. Desperate for a positive result after a DNF week one in Bahrain, Charles Leclerc in particular projects to come out swinging. He’s our bet to round out the podium at the Australian GP alongside Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez, though Carlos Sainz could certainly challenge as well.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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