The MLB Season has arrived for 2021, and after a COVID-shortened season in 2020, baseball is well and truly ready to click back into gear.
A great long-term bet to have over the course of the season is the Team Regular Season Wins Total market. If you haven't laid down a bet like this before, it's simple: the sportsbooks set a win total line and you have to decide whether that team will win over or under the line that has been set.
We've consulted our MLB Futures data, which is powered by 10,000 simulations of the 2021 MLB Season, and matched our likely win total data up against what the sportsbooks are currently offering to determine the edges on the market and where your money should be going.
Before we get started, we should note that the projection data is based upon all teams completing the set 162-game schedule. Keep that in mind when placing your bets as well (although hopefully the worst of COVID-19 is behind us!)
BET: Atlanta Braves o91.5 wins
+100 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook
Overall, we really, really (I mean really) like the Braves to make some noise this season. After a disappointing end to 2020 which saw them fall agonizingly short of the World Series, our MLB Futures data has them with the second-best chance to win it all.
When anazlysing their projected win total for the regular season, we have them down for 99 wins, far exceeding the 91 currently being offered by the sportsbooks.
BET: Baltimore Orioles o64.5 wins
-110 odds with BetMGM
One of the biggest discrepancies we have on our data - we're projecting the Orioles to win 77 of their games. Right now, when compared to their 2020 season win percentage of 41%, BetMGM's 2021 total is actually lower (40.1%), meaning they could be worse than last year and this bet would still cash! This one is a home run.
Speaking of homers, while you're over at BetMGM, we highly recommend you take advantage of this offer where you can receive $1 for EVERY home run hit on Opening Day!
BET: Boston Red Sox o79.5 wins
-104 with FanDuel Sportsbook
The Red Sox will need a much better start to the season than the one they had last year in which they opened the year with a 6-18 start. After that sluggish start, the team went at a 50/50 pace for the rest of it which is what our data is forecasting for 2021. The 'books think they'll be well under .500 but we're happy to make them regret it.
BET: Kansas City Royals u74.5 wins
-110 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook
We're tipping a continuation of the slide for the 2015 World Series champs. Current sportsbook lines have them sitting at the 75 win mark which equates to a 46% win percentage over a 162-game season. In 2020 they could only win 43% of their games over 60 games. Our projection shows 69 wins which is more in line with last year's form.
Sportsbooks all over the United States are competiting with each other to get you on board as a customer which is leading to some major bonus offers for the start of the MLB season, including a mega promo from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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BET: Oakland Athletics u86.5 wins
-110 with FanDuel Sportsbook
The team that made sports projections and analytics like ours famous, we're projecting the Moneyballers to win only 80 games this season, well down on the 86.5 line set by FanDuel Sportsbook. It's hard to see how these guys go over .500 with some of the quality around them in the AL West.
For every team's probability and best odds to win the championship, check out our MLB World Series Probabilities by clicking the drop down menu and changing it to 'MLB'.