The Doggy Juice Podcast celebrated 100 episodes last week. If you haven’t checked it out yet but are interested in learning about the latest developments in sports betting legalization while also uncovering edges on the betting boards each week, be sure to give it a listen!
Here’s a three-pack of best bets from this week’s episode.
Let's get into it👇
🏈 Falcons @ Saints
Falcons +4 or better (reduce position at +3.5)
This line has dipped a bit in the marketplace after news emerged that Taysom Hill is expected to start at quarterback for the Saints instead of Jameis Winston following last week’s injury to Drew Brees. Despite all of the “noodle arm” talk before the season started (including from me), Brees ranks No. 3 in QBR this year despite not having his best offensive weapons for most of the campaign.
I believe the market didn’t adequately price in the drop-off from Brees to the backups, opening up nice value on a well-rested Atlanta team coming off its bye week.
🏈 Dolphins @ Broncos
Total match points: Under 45.5
This game has been on and off the board throughout the week due to uncertainty regarding the status of Broncos QB Drew Lock. Regardless of his status, the Under 45.5 is an enticing value play for your Week 11 card.
Both of these teams sit in the top 13 in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders. Neither team is particularly fast either, with the Dolphins ranking No. 31 overall in terms of offensive pace. Moreover, Miami’s scoring output has been skewed ever since rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa took over following the team’s Week 7 bye.
The Dolphins are averaging 30 points per game during that stretch largely due to five outlier defensive plays during that period (three returned for TDs and two that gave the offense short goal-to-go opportunities). Expect that defensive scoring variance to regress this weekend in a game that should see a slow, slogging pace in the Denver altitude.
The Broncos also show value on my numbers catching +3.5 or better, which of course means that bettors would be wise to take a look at the Miami Team Total Under in Sunday’s matchup as well.
🏈 NFL 6-point, 2-team teaser:
Texans +8 and Packers +8.5
Advantage teasers in the NFL continue to cash at a very high rate this season. As we stated here previously, a two-team, six-point NFL teaser that crosses through the key numbers of 3 and 7 can give bettors a mathematical edge over the book (as long as the vigorish isn’t too much above the standard -110). There are several options that fit this model on the Week 11 card.
Since teasing the Chargers down from -8.5 to -2.5 on one leg of a two-teamer is no longer available in the marketplace, including the Texans up to +8 is the next-best selection to pair with the Packers up to +8.5 this Sunday. I have both of these games lined at a pick’em on my numbers, so being able to tease both underdogs up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 and essentially ask them to keep their respective games within one score is an excellent wager for your Sunday portfolio.