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123rd U.S. Open Best Bets for Top-20 Finishes - Predictions and Round Robin Parlay

Our coverage of the 123rd U.S. Open continues! We’ve dropped a +4447 Three-Ball parlay with analysis backed by our predictive model, as well as our best bets for the tournament, including three outright winners and a pair of placements.
Be sure to check out all of our Golf tools before the action tees off. We’ve got our in-house rankings, full tournament predictions and our Head-to-Head tool which allows you to check out individual matchups with insights for each.
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Heading to Los Angeles Country Club, we'll see the best golfers in the world go toe-to-toe, featuring golfers from both LIV and PGA. There's sure to be plenty of excitement and drama around this event, which will make betting on it that much more fun.
Let’s take a deeper look at our model’s predictions and head down the board to find some hidden value. We’re going to look at the Top 20 market and see if we can’t jump on some mispriced odds.
Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks and get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.
Top 20 Bets to Make at the U.S. Open
Joaquin Niemann (+260)
Starting with the shortest odds and working our way up, we kick things off with Joaquin Niemann. A LIV defector, he has played in both majors so far this year, taking home a T16 at the Masters before missing the cut at the PGA Championship. He’s performed decently well on LIV this year, with a T11 and a pair of T8s to go along with four finishes in the 30s.
DimersBOT gives Niemann a 33% shot at securing a Top-20 finish, yet his odds imply a 28% chance, giving us a little 5% value here. If you look at our full Top 20 probabilities, you’ll see that the rest of the golfers with a similar probability have odds in the mid +100s (with the exception of our next bet), further illustrating the value at this mark.
RELATED: +4447 Three-Ball Matchups Parlay
Denny McCarthy (+330)
A mixed bag of a golfer with some impressive talent, Denny McCarthy has notched seven such finishes this year as well as three missed cuts. He’s finished inside the Top 15 in each event following a MC and is coming off a 2nd place finish after losing in a playoff to Viktor Hovland at the Memorial a couple of weeks ago.
Just like Niemann, our model is giving McCarthy a 33% chance of a Top-20 finish, but he’s priced out to +330, giving us an even higher edge of almost 10%. This is some of the best value on the entire board and McCarthy has all the tools to make it happen.
Eric Cole (+550)
Eric Cole can’t decide if he wants to be a good golfer or a bad golfer. He has six Missed Cuts this year, but five Top-20 finishes, including a pair of Top 5s. He‘s making just his third start in a major; he finished T15 at the PGA Championship this year and missed the cut at his first major, the U.S. Open in 2021. He has elite putting ability (second in overall putting average) and he’ll need it on these tricky links.
Our model gives Cole a 21% chance to finish in the Top 20, good enough for just under a 6% edge. Our fair price would be closer to +350 for Cole, giving us almost two units of value here. Like Niemann and McCarthy in their tier, you’ll see drastically shorter odds for the golfers who hover around Cole.
Andrew Putnam (+550)
How do you not back a guy with “putt” in his name? Putnam get a solid 20.6% chance from our model and at the same odds as Eric Cole so the value is nearly identical here. Living up to his namesake, Putnam is ranked 5th in total putting, one of his strongest traits. He struggles off the tee, however, so the key to competing throughout the weekend will be whether or not he can drive the ball well and accurately. Once he gets to the greens, he should be able to showcase his ability. Coming off a T5 at Memorial, Putnam will look to build some momentum.
Abraham Ancer (+950)
The longest odds of anyone who still has value, Ancer is another LIV defector making his third major start of the year. It looks to be a year out of form for Ancer, who had nine Top-20s, including at two majors, between PGA and LIV events in 2021-22. He’s not played very well this year, so we’re not going to make a strong case for why he can contend with this field. This is however, too good of a price to ignore for a golfer with a 16.4% probability.
You have to go all the way down the board to under 10% probability to find another golfer with this value. Ancer is as underpriced for a Top-20- finish as anyone in this field.
MORE: Best Outright Winner Bets at the U.S. Open
U.S. Open Top 20 Round Robin Parlay
If you’re looking to really spice up the action with these Top 20 bets, we suggest you try a Round Robin parlay. In case you’re not familiar, you can read all about Round Robin wagering in our convenient strategy guide here.
A Top-20 Round Robin comes with some particular risk, as each golfer who finishes in the Top 20 makes it more difficult for the next, and so on. If you want to swap out a couple of these golfers with ones more likely to secure a Top-20 finish, go for it, however, you will find much less value in the better golfers.
What’s really great about the Round Robin is that if you place just the 2x10s (which would be each of the ten combinations of two legs), you will net a small profit if even just the shortest odds hit (McCarthy and Niemann). If you can score three, you’re walking away with a nice pad to your bankroll.
For example, let’s say you place $5 on the Round Robin 2x10s for a total of $50 (10 parlays at $5 each). The $5 bet on Niemann/McCarthy at +1160 on FanDuel, would return $58.00 just by itself.
You won’t be able to parlay these on every book as they have different rules when it comes to combining bets form a singular golf event, but you can absolutely do so on FanDuel. We encourage you to check which of your books will let you do so and place the bet at the one where you’ll get the best odds.
These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full Predictions for the U.S. Open to find your favorite plays!
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.