NHL 2020 Stanley Cup Finals Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game One: Predictions, picks and bets

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September 19, 2020 12:24 AM

The NHL season has reached its apex, with the Stars and Lightning getting the Stanley Cup Finals underway on Saturday.

Tampa Bay were marginally better during the regular season, but it means little now, with either team capable of claiming hockey's top prize.

Will the Lightning go up 1-0 or can the Stars get the W? NHL Bet Hub predictions below 👇

 

Dimers' predictions are based on 10,000 simulations of this particular matchup

 

Dimers' Suggested Plays

🔥 BEST: Lightning Moneyline (-165*)
💪 Puck Line: Lightning -1.5
☝ Over/Under: o5.5 total goals
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🔥 BEST: Moneyline

Lightning (-165*) to win has a 61% probability

Tampa Bay head into this game as favorites and according to our predictive model it's for good reason. We've rated them as a 61 percent chance at the Moneyline, which means a Lightning win is our top pick in the series opener.

 

Puck Line

💪 Lightning -1.5 has a 0.5% edge against the books

This is a tough market to find value in, however, our data suggests the Lightning are the smart Puck Line bet. They have a 0.5 percent edge against the books, which means they are a better chance of covering than their odds suggest.

☝ Over/Under

Total goals o5.5 has a 4.8% edge against the books

Recent playoff games have been tight and tough, which means there is a big edge for the over in this market. There should be plenty of mistakes in this game due to what's a stake and that should result in goals. Take the over.

 

🏀 Dimers' take-out

This game will set the tone for the rest of the series, and both teams will be desperate to get away to a strong start. Expect the Lightning to perform well in what should be somewhat of a goal-fest. If you’re keen for some action, check out the best sportsbooks in your state, here.

 

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*Odds and probabilities correct at time of publishing.