Toronto FC vs. New York City prediction, odds, MLS picks [8/29/2026]

Toronto will square off with NY City in MLS action at BMO Field on Saturday, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Toronto as the most likely winner in this Toronto vs. NY City prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Toronto FC vs. New York City prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS matchup between Toronto and NY City, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 40.7% chance of Toronto winning, a 34.9% chance for NY City, and a 24.5% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 56.7% chance of going over, according to our model.

Toronto FC vs. New York City odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: NY City +178, Toronto +163

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Toronto FC vs. New York City picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Toronto @ +163 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +127 via Polymarket

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toronto to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Toronto FC vs. New York City: Correct score predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Toronto 1-1 NY City (11.3% probability)
• Toronto 2-1 NY City (8.8%)
• Toronto 1-2 NY City (8%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Toronto FC vs. New York City game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between Toronto and NY City in MLS at BMO Field is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto FC vs. New York City
• Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: BMO Field

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Toronto has a 40.7% win probability on Saturday, NY City has a 34.9% win probability, and there is a 24.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.