Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/16/2026]

The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals will lock horns in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Sunday, starting at 3:15 PM ET.

The Cubs will have Edward Cabrera (5-4, 5.10 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Hunter Dobbins (2-3, 3.40 ERA) for the Cardinals.

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Cardinals and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 61.7% chance of defeating the Cardinals.

According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 55.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 56.3% chance of going over,.

Cardinals vs. Cubs odds [8/16/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-125) / Cubs -1.5 (+122)
• Moneyline: Cardinals +167, Cubs -166

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cardinals vs. Cubs picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Cubs -1.5 @ +122 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Cardinals @ +167 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 8.5 @ -117 via Polymarket

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cardinals vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Cardinals at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 3:15 PM ET.

• Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
• Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
• Time: 3:15 PM ET/12:15PM PT
• Venue: Wrigley Field

Conclusion

We predict the Cubs, with a 61.7% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.