Sep 5, 2026
Giants vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/5/2026]
Read Article Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 56.3% win probability for the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
The Boston Red Sox will face the Seattle Mariners in MLB action at Fenway Park on Wednesday, beginning at 4:10 PM ET.
The Red Sox will start Patrick Sandoval (1-3, 4.20 ERA), up against Bryce Miller (4-8, 4.12 ERA) for the Mariners.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner in this Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Mariners and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Red Sox a 56.3% chance of defeating the Mariners.
According to our model, the Mariners (+1.5) have a 60.7% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 55.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mariners +1.5 (-163) / Red Sox -1.5 (+156)
- Moneyline: Mariners +135, Red Sox -137
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+104/-108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 @ 39¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mariners @ 43¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Mariners at Fenway Park is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 56.3% win probability, will likely beat the Mariners in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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