Padres vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/17/2026]
Get San Diego Padres vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Monday.
The New York Mets will face the San Diego Padres, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Citi Field on Monday, commencing at 7:10 PM ET.
The Mets will have Nolan McLean (8-8, 3.42 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Padres have opted for Walker Buehler (7-5, 4.88 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 55.0% win probability over the Padres.
This article offers a complete Padres vs. Mets prediction, including best bets and picks.
Padres vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 55.0% chance of defeating the Padres.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 58.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 54.4% chance of going over,.
Padres vs. Mets odds [8/17/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+165) / Mets +1.5 (-200)
- Moneyline: Padres +113, Mets -115
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Padres vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Padres -1.5 @ +165 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Mets @ -115 via Bet365
- Total: Over 8 @ -115 via Bet365
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Padres -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Padres vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Padres at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
- Date: Monday, August 17, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 55.0% win probability, will likely beat the Padres in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
