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Read Article Pirates vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres predictions for MLB Monday.
The San Diego Padres will square off with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Petco Park on Monday, commencing at 9:40 PM ET.
Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.20 ERA) will start for the Padres, while the Pirates will counter with Braxton Ashcraft (13-5, 3.68 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 52.7% win probability over the Pirates.
This article offers a complete Pirates vs. Padres prediction, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Braxton Ashcraft's projected pitching stats.
Pirates vs. Padres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Pirates and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Padres a 52.7% chance of beating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 64.1% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 52.2% chance of going over.
Pirates vs. Padres odds [8/24/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (+178) / Padres +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Pirates +104, Padres -105
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Padres picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 @ +178 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Padres @ -105 via Bet365
- Total: Over 7.5 @ +108 via Polymarket
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Padres game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Padres and Pirates at Petco Park is scheduled to begin at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Monday, August 24, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 52.7% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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