Pirates vs. Marlins prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [8/12/2026]

MLB action continues on Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET as the Pittsburgh Pirates square off with the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park.

Janson Junk (5-7, 4.63 ERA) will be on the bump for the Marlins, pitting him against Carmen Mlodzinski (6-4, 3.51 ERA) for the Pirates.

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Marlins.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's Pirates vs. Marlins matchup, including best bets and picks.

Pirates vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB game between the Pirates and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Pirates a 51.5% chance of defeating the Marlins.

According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 67.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51.7% chance of going over,.

Pirates vs. Marlins odds [8/12/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-200) / Marlins -1.5 (+170)
• Moneyline: Pirates +113, Marlins -113

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pirates vs. Marlins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ -200 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Pirates @ +113 via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ +115 via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Pirates vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's MLB game between the Marlins and Pirates at loanDepot park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
• Date: Wednesday, August 12, 2026
• Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
• Venue: loanDepot park

Conclusion

We predict the Pirates, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.